Prosper.com - 05/15/08 late loan stats update

Prosper.com - 05/15/08 late loan stats update

05/17/08 | by fred93 [mail] | Categories: General, Prosper.com, Late loan stats

Here's the mid-May update to to my late loan statistics charts.

These charts show statistics for the performance of all prosper.com loans. Each curve represents the set of loans that were created in one calendar month. The vertical axis is the fraction of those loans that have "gone bad", in other words are 1 month late or worse (up to and including default). The horizontal axis is the observation date. All data comes from Prosper.com's performance web page.

A larger, more readable version of that chart can be found here

5/15/08 small late loan chart

Here's a chart of the  same data in which each curve has been slid to the left to a common origin.  The horizontal axis is now days since loan origination month.

5/15/08 slid

Explanation of methodology can be found in my prior postings in this blog .

An important factor in prosper.com loan results is how well Prosper collects the payments due on these loans.  Please see my prior writings on that subject, including:

Written 05/06/07: Collections is broken

Written 05/04/08: Collections is not improving

If you're a DIGG member, here's a link to this story on DIGG, where you can digg it .

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Comments, Trackbacks, Pingbacks:

Comment from: mr1776 [Member] Email
Those curves still don't look they're leveling off!

Looks like we can expect up to 44% of loans to go late, and then inevitably default, during their three-year lifespan.
PermalinkPermalink 05/17/08 @ 00:52
Comment from: fred93 [Member] Email
To mr1776

I don't expect the curves to ever level off. Under an assumption of a constant default rate for the remaining live loans, the curves would be negative exponentials, ie gently roll toward lower slope as the loan heads toward maturity.
PermalinkPermalink 05/17/08 @ 15:04

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