zcommodore

I saw a comment on Bama's most recent blog post that made me go look at the numbers again. First, let's look at the performance data for all loans originated on Prosper as of today, Feb. 10. Keep in mind that even though it says there have been 18,673 loans, the actual number is over 18700 due to repurchased loans that Prosper has removed from their statistics. 1 in 6 of those loans are late (>15 days late or defaulted).

The comment on Bama's blog asked what it was for loans at least 60 days old. The number is worse. Here is the performance data for all loans at least 2 months old. It comes out to 18.5% are late or defaulted or more than 2/11.

Now, many experienced lenders suggest loans need at least 6 months of aging before you can start to see accurate statistics. So, let's see what the numbers are for all loans at least 6 months old. As you can see, the numbers are even worse. 22.5% or more than 1 in 5 of all loans at least 6 months old on Prosper are late or defaulted.

Anyone reading Fred93's blog knows that loans at least 1-month late have about a 80% chance of defaulting. I don't know that the numbers have changed a whole lot but none of them look too good.

My point is, Bama needs to stop pulling punches. Tell it like it really is, Bama. :-)