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Author Topic: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update  (Read 8365 times)

Fred93

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Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« on: July 04, 2008, 03:04:55 pm »

I've just posted the regular late loan charts update to my blog.


« Last Edit: October 20, 2009, 03:02:21 am by Fred93 »
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Mark12547

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2008, 03:18:07 pm »

Thank you, Fred, for keeping these charts updated!

I appreciate the work you faithfully do on letting us know the bad news about Prosper loan delinquencies! This type of information takes some digging on Prosper's web site and, as you had written before, some of the numbers aren't even available because of the way the loans disappear from their Performance page.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2008, 03:20:20 pm by Mark12547 »
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bamalucky

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2008, 03:18:48 pm »

Thanks Fred..
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Xenon481

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2008, 03:19:29 pm »

Whoa November 2007!!!  :ninja:

bamalucky

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2008, 03:20:36 pm »

Whoa November 2007!!!  :ninja:

Feb 2007 is the worst..

It's 33.1% late or default

http://www.lendingstats.com/loansFunded
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bamalucky

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« Last Edit: July 04, 2008, 03:32:26 pm by bamalucky »
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bamalucky

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #6 on: July 04, 2008, 03:55:16 pm »

Fred replied to my message.

Quote
I used an observation date of 07/01/08.  You used 07/04.  Only slightly different.  Numbers about the same.

I use a denominator of 903, which is the # of loans originally shown as originated in Feb'07.  One was repurchased or something later.

Defaults was 105 when I looked at it yesterday.  Now it says 106.  Shouldn't change after the fact, with an observation date in the past, but it does.  So 105 + the 1 repurchased = 106 defaulted or repurchased.

I had 41 at "1-3 late" (now shows 40) and 122 at "4+".

(106+41+122)/903 = 29.8%

Be careful when following the purple lines, as they cross.
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ira01

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2008, 04:30:33 pm »

Whoa November 2007!!!  :ninja:

Yeah, so much for the bidding guidance scaring lenders off the bad loans.  And although it is too soon to tell, the two most recent months (March and April 2008) also look like they are getting off to a bad start.
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Mtnchick

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2008, 04:36:51 pm »

Thanks again Fred - you put your time where you mouth is :)
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xraider

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2008, 05:17:11 pm »

Thanks, Fred.  The colors are as pretty as I expect tonight's fireworks to be!
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mothandrust

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2008, 06:47:26 pm »

Thanks, Fred.  The colors are as pretty as I expect tonight's fireworks to be!

Yeah, but the trajectories of fireworks don't keep going up forever!
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cubbiesnextyr

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2008, 09:08:44 am »

Something is wrong with the X-axis labels...

you've got some 30/31's mixed in with 1's...

5/1/06
5/31/06 6/1/06
7/1/06
7/31/06 8/1/06
8/31/06 9/1/06
9/30/06 10/1/06
10/31/06 11/1/06
11/30/06 12/1/06
12/31/06 1/1/07
1/30/07 2/1/07
3/2/07 3/1/07
4/1/07
5/2/07 5/1/07
6/1/07
7/2/07 7/1/07
8/1/07
9/1/07
10/1/07
10/31/07 11/1/07
12/1/07
12/31/07 1/1/08
1/31/08 2/1/08
3/1/08
4/1/08
5/1/08
6/1/08
7/1/08

unless of course there was a reason you're doing it the way you're doing it...
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ira01

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2008, 12:27:30 pm »

Something is wrong with the X-axis labels...

you've got some 30/31's mixed in with 1's...

unless of course there was a reason you're doing it the way you're doing it...

It's always like that.  I've always assumed that those were just the days that he happened to grab the data.
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cubbiesnextyr

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2008, 12:33:57 pm »

Something is wrong with the X-axis labels...

you've got some 30/31's mixed in with 1's...

unless of course there was a reason you're doing it the way you're doing it...

It's always like that.  I've always assumed that those were just the days that he happened to grab the data.

Could be, but I think it leads to confusion. 
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Fred93

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Re: Fred93 blog 07/01/08 - late loan stats update
« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2008, 12:36:28 pm »

Something is wrong with the X-axis labels...
you've got some 30/31's mixed in with 1's...
5/1/06
5/31/06 6/1/06
7/1/06
7/31/06 8/1/06

Unfortunately, there's no way to tell Excel to make the axis ticks "once per month" in the kind of chart I use (called a scatter chart).  (I have requested that feature be added.)  Excel can only put the ticks evenly spaced.  As you know, months are different lengths.  Some 30, some 31, and an occasional 28 or 29 days.  All you can do is tell Excel to make the ticks every so many days.  The normal inclination would be to tell Excel to put them 30 days apart, as that's the number we normally think of as the length of a month, but that works very poorly, because the average length of a month is longer than that.  I tell it to put the ticks 30.47 days apart, which gets most of the ticks on the 1st of the month, but there's an occasional tick on the 30th or 2nd of some month.  None of this has anything to do with how the data is presented.  The data points are all on the 1st or 15th of each month.  I've decided to just live with this.

There is another mode in Excel where the X axis becomes nonnumeric and you can label it any way you please.  You could label the ticks Joe, Pete, Bob, etc if you wanted.  (called a line chart)  However, I refuse to use this mode, as in this mode, Excel treats the X axis as nonnumeric, and therefore it becomes impossible to do things such as trend lines, curve fitting, etc.  Also in a line chart there isn't any way to deal with nonuniformly space data.  

Suppose I decided at some point that grabbing the data twice a month was too much work, and I switched to once a month.  I'd want the chart to gracefully handle that, with the points on the right side simply beginning to appear farther apart at some point.  A scatter chart treats its input data as (x,y) pairs, so it will put all the dots the right place automatically, and there's no confusion.  A line chart treats its data as a sequence of Y values, which it draws evenly spaced, 'cause it knows nothing about any quantitative nature of the X axis.  So, unless I'm charting the sales figures for Joe, Pete, and Bob, I always use scatter charts, and because the X axis is often time, I live with the little month size issue.  This crazy way we name the days is just a human convention.
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