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leporello
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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2008, 03:47:43 pm » |
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Further proof that the LepIra projected default rate (which was just a back-of-the-envelope calculation) is not a pessimistic overestimate. You heard it here, yet again: Prosper loans with a year of seasoning default at a historical rate of well over 20%. |
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Mtnchick
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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2008, 03:51:19 pm » |
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Am I reading that last chart correctly? Since April 07 more $$$ have been late than have been paid??  |
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Classic comment from Urbi to a poster who said they were leaving:
"Once again, we note that your threats are hollow and you come across like a sad, lonely blowhard.
I doubt anyone here gives a shit about you. We pretty much all know that you are a vile and unethical parasite of a human being with an abnormal craving for attention."
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leporello
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« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2008, 03:59:54 pm » |
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Am I reading that last chart correctly? Since April 07 more $$$ have been late than have been paid?? The April 07 line shows stats about loans originating in April 07 only. It's not cumulative. And yes, nearly twice as many April 07 loans have defaulted or are DQ than have been paid off. |
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Mtnchick
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« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2008, 04:02:53 pm » |
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Am I reading that last chart correctly? Since April 07 more $$$ have been late than have been paid?? The April 07 line shows stats about loans originating in April 07 only. It's not cumulative. And yes, nearly twice as many April 07 loans have defaulted or are DQ than have been paid off. OK, so that is listing loans that are "paid off" and not "timely monthly payments"? That would make the numbers look more comforting /confused |
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Classic comment from Urbi to a poster who said they were leaving:
"Once again, we note that your threats are hollow and you come across like a sad, lonely blowhard.
I doubt anyone here gives a shit about you. We pretty much all know that you are a vile and unethical parasite of a human being with an abnormal craving for attention."
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leporello
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« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2008, 04:03:34 pm » |
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Another conclusion to be drawn from that chart is that 50% more $$ are DQ or defaulted in all of Prosper history than have been paid.
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leporello
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2008, 04:05:15 pm » |
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Am I reading that last chart correctly? Since April 07 more $$$ have been late than have been paid?? The April 07 line shows stats about loans originating in April 07 only. It's not cumulative. And yes, nearly twice as many April 07 loans have defaulted or are DQ than have been paid off. OK, so that is listing loans that are "paid off" and not "timely monthly payments"? That would make the numbers look more comforting /confused Yes, the "Paid" column is loans that are completely paid off -- at least that's how I read it. The "Current" column is loans that are current (i.e., not late in any way nor defaulted). I don't know how LS represents the "Payoff in Progress" loans, but that's a relatively small bunch of them. |
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sb92075
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« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2008, 06:16:02 pm » |
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select substring(ObservationDate,1,7), total, count(LP.Status) as Delinquents, round((count(LP.Status)/total)*100) PCT
from LoanPerformance LP, ltotals lt
where substring(ObservationDate,1,7) = substring(odate,1,7)
and Status not in ('Current','Paid','Payoff in progress')
group by substring(ObservationDate,1,7)
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
| substring(ObservationDate,1,7) | total | Delinquents | PCT |
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
| 2006-04 | 761 | 12 | 2 |
| 2006-05 | 1374 | 45 | 3 |
| 2006-06 | 2068 | 134 | 6 |
| 2006-07 | 2921 | 274 | 9 |
| 2006-08 | 3953 | 424 | 11 |
| 2006-09 | 4799 | 578 | 12 |
| 2006-10 | 5867 | 845 | 14 |
| 2006-11 | 6906 | 1039 | 15 |
| 2006-12 | 8209 | 1386 | 17 |
| 2007-01 | 9784 | 1602 | 16 |
| 2007-02 | 10579 | 1710 | 16 |
| 2007-03 | 12675 | 2457 | 19 |
| 2007-04 | 13699 | 2735 | 20 |
| 2007-05 | 15756 | 3659 | 23 |
| 2007-06 | 15842 | 3185 | 20 |
| 2007-07 | 17481 | 3985 | 23 |
| 2007-08 | 19285 | 4786 | 25 |
| 2007-09 | 18759 | 4323 | 23 |
| 2007-10 | 20907 | 5449 | 26 |
| 2007-11 | 21723 | 5939 | 27 |
| 2007-12 | 16990 | 5143 | 30 |
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
The percentage of "delinquent" loans continues to increase; where DELINQUENT = NOT CURRENT, NOT PAID, & NOT PAYOFF IN PROGRESS |
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leporello
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2008, 06:19:35 pm » |
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select substring(ObservationDate,1,7), total, count(LP.Status) as Delinquents, round((count(LP.Status)/total)*100) PCT
from LoanPerformance LP, ltotals lt
where substring(ObservationDate,1,7) = substring(odate,1,7)
and Status not in ('Current','Paid','Payoff in progress')
group by substring(ObservationDate,1,7)
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
| substring(ObservationDate,1,7) | total | Delinquents | PCT |
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
| 2006-04 | 761 | 12 | 2 |
| 2006-05 | 1374 | 45 | 3 |
| 2006-06 | 2068 | 134 | 6 |
| 2006-07 | 2921 | 274 | 9 |
| 2006-08 | 3953 | 424 | 11 |
| 2006-09 | 4799 | 578 | 12 |
| 2006-10 | 5867 | 845 | 14 |
| 2006-11 | 6906 | 1039 | 15 |
| 2006-12 | 8209 | 1386 | 17 |
| 2007-01 | 9784 | 1602 | 16 |
| 2007-02 | 10579 | 1710 | 16 |
| 2007-03 | 12675 | 2457 | 19 |
| 2007-04 | 13699 | 2735 | 20 |
| 2007-05 | 15756 | 3659 | 23 |
| 2007-06 | 15842 | 3185 | 20 |
| 2007-07 | 17481 | 3985 | 23 |
| 2007-08 | 19285 | 4786 | 25 |
| 2007-09 | 18759 | 4323 | 23 |
| 2007-10 | 20907 | 5449 | 26 |
| 2007-11 | 21723 | 5939 | 27 |
| 2007-12 | 16990 | 5143 | 30 |
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
The percentage of "delinquent" loans continues to increase; where DELINQUENT = NOT CURRENT, NOT PAID, & NOT PAYOFF IN PROGRESS What is your "ltotals" table? I could probably figure it out from context, but that's not an object in the Prosper download. How do you populate that table? |
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sb92075
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« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2008, 06:24:18 pm » |
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It is/was a two column table containing the monthly date & the count of records within LoanPerforance table for that period.
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SGriff
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« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2008, 07:27:56 pm » |
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It is/was a two column table containing the monthly date & the count of records within LoanPerforance table for that period.
You probably should (for fairness' sake) add the total paid off loans to the total loans to get a more accurate comparison of DQ loans to non-DQ loans. |
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My loan: Paid and cleared 12/2009. 36 consecutive on-time payments.
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sb92075
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2008, 07:45:38 pm » |
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It is/was a two column table containing the monthly date & the count of records within LoanPerforance table for that period.
You probably should (for fairness' sake) add the total paid off loans to the total loans to get a more accurate comparison of DQ loans to non-DQ loans. I think I understand what you mean, but it is rather non-trivial (impossible?) to do with pure SQL. FWIW - In a previous post I showed the total count of loans which have been EVER paid off is about 11% of the total count of loans ever made. |
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SGriff
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2008, 07:49:58 pm » |
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Which adjusts those ratios down by about 3%.
Not a dramatic difference, but a difference nonetheless.
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My loan: Paid and cleared 12/2009. 36 consecutive on-time payments.
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