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[Fred93]

http://fred93blog.blogspot.com/2008/11/prospercom-110108-late-loan-stats.html

The meat of it is...

[Mark12547]

Thank you for the update, Fred93!

"The Truth will set you free" ... from any desire to lend on Prosper! 

[xraider]

Well, Fred, the lack of current loan originations will prevent you from running out of colors!

As always, thank you!

[HollowOak]

Well, Fred, the lack of current loan originations will prevent you from running out of colors!

As always, thank you!

After 36 line styles (color and marker style) Fred can recycle.  At the end of Feb 2009 the first public loans will be in a stable state.

[Xyrus]

Those curves certainly like to climb, don't they? Where do you think it will actually start to level off?

I suppose the worst it can get is 100%.

~X~

[ira01]

Those curves certainly like to climb, don't they? Where do you think it will actually start to level off?

Looks like in the 40+% range.   

[Xyrus]

At a 40% default rate, Vegas starts looking competitive.

~X~

[NewHorizon]

Those curves certainly like to climb, don't they? Where do you think it will actually start to level off?

Looks like in the 40+% range.   

... the latest in a long series of guesses made over time.
All of them wrong, so far...

[arebelspy]

at some point the defaults stop (say, month 36 or so).  i'm curious what the default rate at that point will be.

[Senator]

It'll take 36 months + at least 4 months for the numbers to come in.  Heck I've got a BK filing as of 2/08 that still shows full value + interest in the 4+ month late category.

[pjz]

From the chart it looks like we are seeing the effect of changes made at Prosper.
From 5/1/06 to 4/1/07 the lines are steeper probably because of the availability of HR loans.
Starting at 12/31/07 the lines are again getting steeper probably due to the availability of 35% loans.
Disclaimer: I did not check if these dates exactly corresponded to changes to Prosper policy.