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[bamalucky]

I think there is something wrong with your math --

Whew - I thought it was just me who was having trouble getting the numbers to come out right..
But it's not bama's math.  It's just cut/pasted from http://www.prosper.com/lend/performance.aspx

I forgot & put in the wrong colomn..Thats the cash amount

The real amount is

20.49%

[Shenandoah]

7.01% of AA have been charged off
12.10% of A

These are the shocking numbers, IMHO.  Wasn't the Experian default rate for AA's like 0.1%?     Lenders knew those numbers were very understated, but I doubt anyone expected the true numbers would be 70 times worse. 

I think it was 0.3%.  At the other end, HR was 19.1%, IIRC.

Experian Default Rates
AA: .2% Default
A: .9% Default
B: 1.8%% Default
C: 3.3%% Default
D: 6.2% Default
E: 11.1% Default
HR: 19.1% Default
NC: Cannot Estimate

[ira01]

$27,758,496 has been charged off

http://www.prosper.com/lend/performance.aspx

8.75% are late

Fast forward a little over a month

Charge-offs    $30,330,060  20.11%

Plus 8.28% are late

1.70% Late (16-30 days)

So the recent late are getting slower,but thats just due to the loan pool getting smaller

Fast forward to april 7

Charge-offs    $30,953,285   20.49%

Plus 8.06% are late

1.66% Late (16-30 days)

ETF chargeoff percentage

In reviewing these numbers on Prosper's performance page this morning, I think we have been misinterpreting the charge-off numbers.  Today's numbers are $31,009,395 charged-off (17.36%).  For the numbers of loans (instead of dollars), the numbers are 5,942 (20.53%).  However, it appears that dollar figures represent the original origination amounts of the loans that have since been charged-off, NOT the actual amount charged off.  Thus, it doesn't tell us much to look at the charged-off dollar percentage.  Rather, we should subtract the Pre-charge-off payments and the Recoveries, which gives a net charged-off amount of $23,330,755.  That is 13.1% of Prosper's total loan origination dollars that have been flushed down the can in charge-offs. 

[ferengi31337]

Charge offs are net of payments.

Dollar numbers as at 13 Apr 2009:

Active, billed, <1 month late
55.33%
Active, billed, 1+ months late
4.54%
Paid in full
18.56%
Pre-charge-off payments
4.03%
Charge-offs
17.53%

55.33 + 4.54 + 18.56 + 4.03 + 17.53 = 99.99.

[ccat]

So basically Prosper gave away $31million of OPM and got paid well for doing it 

[God-Father]

So basically Prosper gave away $31million of OPM and got paid well for doing it 

Not well enough to make a profit.

[ira01]

So basically Prosper gave away $31million of OPM and got paid well for doing it 

They were pikers compared to all the big banks, investment banks, mortgage brokers, etc.

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

I think I see some cool new slogans in Prosper's Future...

Prosper: The original bail-out package for irresponsible people

Prosper: Creating Toxic Debt Since 2006

[bamalucky]

At least we still have an audience

Name:    FraudMan
Posts:    0 (0 per day)
Position:    Newbie
Date Registered:    September 14, 2007, 04:08:11 PM
Last Active:    April 15, 2009, 02:42:08 PM

[dvd]

At least we still have an audience

Name:    FraudMan
Posts:    0 (0 per day)
Position:    Newbie
Date Registered:    September 14, 2007, 04:08:11 PM
Last Active:    April 15, 2009, 02:42:08 PM

Poor DoFu.
I think he has realized by now that he's killed his career by going to prosper -- If he had stayed at a bank or so, he would be making out right now, even with his level incompetence.

- Daniel

[NewHorizon]

... he would be making out right now, even with his level incompetence.

I hafta disagree on the bolded part.
Arguably (*), perhaps he should have foreseen what he we stepping into when he joined Prosper.  But as a collections guy, I thought he is/was competent.

(*) - if you put a gun to my head.

[ira01]

... he would be making out right now, even with his level incompetence.

I hafta disagree on the bolded part.
Arguably, perhaps he should have foreseen what he we stepping into when he joined Prosper.  But as a collections guy, I thought he is/was competent.

Based on what?  There were no measurable improvements in collections after he joined, and several things that got worse (which may, or may not, be his fault), including the cancellation of JDB sales, the switch to AmSher which appears to be a complete dud (although we don't know for sure because Prosper stopped reporting equivalent collections results), and the complete and utter bungling of the NAT (which he probably does bear a significant share of the blame for, especially after all his big talk about his litigation prowess).

[NewHorizon]

Whoa - can we back up...?

Are you (plural) saying the guy was incompetent throughout his career?
Or was he competent up to the time he joined Prosper, and then suddenly forgot his career skills?

If yes to either of the above, then "based on what?"

Meanwhile, to directly answer ira01's "based on what?", I accept his initial Q&A (where he discusses his record) at face value and therefore accept him as a competent.  I heartily agree that his effectiveness at Prosper has been dismal.  I know that sounds like a contradiction.  But keeping in mind how Prosper was executing prior to DoFu's arrival, it seems to me not unreasonable to think that he lacks the executive support needed to make him effective.  For example, I suspect letting the NAT project die by negligence wasn't a decision he made.  Or at least he was forced to forego things when he never got the staff, for example, needed to fulfill what was promised.

[dvd]

Whoa - can we back up...?

Are you (plural) saying the guy was incompetent throughout his career?
Or was he competent up to the time he joined Prosper, and then suddenly forgot his career skills?

If yes to either of the above, then "based on what?"

Meanwhile, to directly answer ira01's "based on what?", I accept his initial Q&A (where he discusses his record) at face value and therefore accept him as a competent.  I heartily agree that his effectiveness at Prosper has been dismal.  I know that sounds like a contradiction.  But keeping in mind how Prosper was executing prior to DoFu's arrival, it seems to me not unreasonable to think that he lacks the executive support needed to make him effective.  For example, I suspect letting the NAT project die by negligence wasn't a decision he made.  Or at least he was forced to forego things when he never got the staff, for example, needed to fulfill what was promised.

What exactly do you base your assumptions on? We've given DoFu more than enough opportunities to justify his non-actions, and what has happened -- Nothing. Using your logic, somebody who promises a lot of bullcrap but doesn't deliver is competent in your opinion. For you, Madoff apparently is a competent fund manager.

Anyway, you're just making excuses for something that is inexcusable -- "But he was just following orders" went out of style a few decades ago.

- dvd

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

Whoa - can we back up...?

Are you (plural) saying the guy was incompetent throughout his career?
Or was he competent up to the time he joined Prosper, and then suddenly forgot his career skills?

If yes to either of the above, then "based on what?"

Meanwhile, to directly answer ira01's "based on what?", I accept his initial Q&A (where he discusses his record) at face value and therefore accept him as a competent.  I heartily agree that his effectiveness at Prosper has been dismal.  I know that sounds like a contradiction.  But keeping in mind how Prosper was executing prior to DoFu's arrival, it seems to me not unreasonable to think that he lacks the executive support needed to make him effective.  For example, I suspect letting the NAT project die by negligence wasn't a decision he made.  Or at least he was forced to forego things when he never got the staff, for example, needed to fulfill what was promised.

Prosper must have considered him competent, considering they promoted him to VP, Operations - of Prosper Bank, no less.