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Author Topic: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?  (Read 19040 times)

kenL

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2009, 02:56:06 pm »

There are only 247 loans which are over 2 months old (old enough to show as 1+ month late).  There are only 19 loans which are over 3 months old.  Prosper 3.0 is far too young to be claiming incredible improvement.

I agree with you, I'm being extremely hopeful. But if I read Fred93's graph correctly it looks like typically between 1% and 2% of loans go 1+month late at 2 months and considering only one of the new 400+ (45+ day old) loans is late (0.25% late), that's a big improvement. There's still a long way to go, but if they want to be profitable they have to maintain this improvement. I'm not gonna invest anymore for a while so I'll be watching the performance of these new loans closely.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2009, 03:10:48 pm by kenL »
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Mark12547

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2009, 03:01:42 pm »

But if I read Fred93's graph correctly it looks like typically between 1% and 2% of loans go 1+month late at 2 months and considering only one of the new 400+ loans is late (0.25% late), that's a big improvement.

I would withhold my judgment. Just 1 instead of 4 loans late wouldn't be what I consider significantly significant, but it would be nice if the current batch of loans continue to perform so nicely.
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Fred93

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2009, 09:30:21 pm »

They should be getting a new round of VC funds any time now.  Once that is done, your concern over their demise should be reduced.

So you think there is hope that Prosper Marketplace, Inc, would get a new batch of high-rolling gamblers investors to prop them up?

I think so.  Expect brinkmanship. 

The new investors will take a big chunk of the company, because as we all know the numbers aren't wonderful at the moment.  The term VCs use is a "down round", meaning a round of investment at a lower price per share than the previous round.  It happens when a company hasn't met their plan, has problems, and needs more cash to stay alive while they fix the problems, as opposed to met their goals, are growing great, and need more cash so they can support the huge new business walkin' in the door.  Management changes are possible too.  Often happens at this stage.

ira01

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2009, 12:57:05 am »

They should be getting a new round of VC funds any time now.  Once that is done, your concern over their demise should be reduced.

So you think there is hope that Prosper Marketplace, Inc, would get a new batch of high-rolling gamblers investors to prop them up?

I think so.  Expect brinkmanship. 

Prosper sucks so bad in almost every way, that for the life of me I can't figure out why any VC would throw more good money after bad.  At some point it is time to pull the plug -- and if it were my money, I would think that time was now.  Originations are running a bit over a paltry $1M a month -- about one sixth of what they were, and about one twentieth of what they probably need to be just to break even.  There's an enormous amount of bad will, and tens of thousands of lenders with bad to horrific experiences.  And a class action lawsuit pending that has the potential of giving anywhere from several million to tens of millions of dollars to lenders.  And aside from that lawsuit, there could easily be another class action lawsuit filed based on non-securities claims -- things like breach of contract, breach of fiduciary duty, fraud, etc.  The statute of limitations for breach of written contract is four years from the breach, and for fraud it is three years from discovery of the fraud.  So there is still plenty of time for someone to file. 
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onthefence

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2009, 02:56:18 am »

Prosper sucks so bad in almost every way, that for the life of me I can't figure out why any VC would throw more good money after bad.  At some point it is time to pull the plug

Who says the existing VCs are going to throw more money at it?  Given what is left, compared to their original investment, it would probably be worth the risk to let additional VCs foot the risk & take up a larger share.  If it happens to grow up, great.  If not, they would be getting pennies on the dollar any way.
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Fred93

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #35 on: October 27, 2009, 05:33:50 am »

Prosper sucks so bad in almost every way, that for the life of me I can't figure out why any VC would throw more good money after bad.  At some point it is time to pull the plug -- and if it were my money, I would think that time was now.  Originations are running a bit over a paltry $1M a month -- about one sixth of what they were, and about one twentieth of what they probably need to be just to break even.  There's an enormous amount of bad will, and tens of thousands of lenders with bad to horrific experiences.  And a class action lawsuit pending that has the potential of giving anywhere from several million to tens of millions of dollars to lenders. ...

You clearly see the negatives, however...

Starting companies is really hard.  VCs routinely work with startups that have all manner of difficult problems.  Things go wrong.  People flake out.  Ideas don't work.  The world changes making the ideas irrelevant.  People overspend and use up the money.  The management who had the great idea turns out not to be the management you need to run the business.  If you'll pardon the common expression: Shit happens.  It is extremely rare to go from idea to success in a straight line.  VCs are used to this.

Most startups don't have a compelling idea.  Maybe it sounded compelling, but it ended up not so.  The idea behind Prosper had the rare quality that it was able to draw 800,000 people to sign up.  And over 20,000 of those people put in money.  Almost nothing generates that much excitement.

It is this evidence of that rare quality in the idea that will keep VCs interested.

Of course the problems you cite are very bad problems, and you missed a couple...
 
1. Now's a really bad time to get money from VCs.
2. The competition has become real.  The first-mover-advantage has been lost.

Senator

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #36 on: October 27, 2009, 08:27:01 am »

Originations are running a bit over a paltry $1M a month -- about one sixth of what they were, and ...
ira, No one, not even Prosper, expected them to pick up where they left off, but rather start from scratch.  It remains to be seen, however, whether they'll ever turn a profit and stay alive.  Seems unlikely.
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Stats as of 12/29/2010:
Total withdrawals: $3,488.87 minus (-) Total deposits: $3,600.00 = ($111.13)
Cash balance: $0
Principal value of active notes:  $0
Total active notes: 0 of 70.

Successful loans are made to persons who are on a clear path to financial stability. -Mjerryfirst May 18th, 2008.

I know that when I make my 10% those "unbelievers" will call it luck cause that will be the easiest way to excuse their mistakes. -Researchpro May 5th, 2009.

It's a great time to be poor and irresponsible in America. -PPT May 2009

kenL

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2009, 09:33:52 am »

The management who had the great idea turns out not to be the management you need to run the business.  

That, I think is the crux of the problem. The Prosper management seem to be "the end justifies the means" type but the means have been horrible and the (profitable) end is nowhere in sight. They need to strip down, clean things up, add some transparency, distribute unbiased info and then build slowly. I think it is time for new management. Any nominations?
« Last Edit: October 27, 2009, 03:29:25 pm by kenL »
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112233

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2009, 10:23:48 am »

Im doing some work for a startup. They had a lot of meetings with VCs without any takers until recently. The difference this time was the company had under its belt some contracts with a few fortune 100 companies. Apparently VCs have less patience with only showing your dream these days. They want to see proof. They want to see revenue.
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kenL

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #39 on: October 28, 2009, 08:34:29 pm »

They want to see revenue.
So lets all start lending again!!!!
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divindj

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #40 on: October 28, 2009, 10:46:16 pm »

So lets all start lending again!!!!

Not till 1 2 3 4 5 with a super number 6 hits on the lotto
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Senator

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #41 on: November 10, 2009, 04:30:22 pm »

Prosper sucks so bad in almost every way, that for the life of me I can't figure out why any VC would throw more good money after bad.  At some point it is time to pull the plug -- and if it were my money, I would think that time was now.
So, if I remember the calculations correctly, Prosper has 7 weeks of operating funds left, right?
« Last Edit: November 10, 2009, 04:31:53 pm by Senator »
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Stats as of 12/29/2010:
Total withdrawals: $3,488.87 minus (-) Total deposits: $3,600.00 = ($111.13)
Cash balance: $0
Principal value of active notes:  $0
Total active notes: 0 of 70.

Successful loans are made to persons who are on a clear path to financial stability. -Mjerryfirst May 18th, 2008.

I know that when I make my 10% those "unbelievers" will call it luck cause that will be the easiest way to excuse their mistakes. -Researchpro May 5th, 2009.

It's a great time to be poor and irresponsible in America. -PPT May 2009

Tokyo Joe

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Re: What Happens if Prosper 3.0 Goes Bankrupt?
« Reply #42 on: November 10, 2009, 06:11:27 pm »

Prosper sucks so bad in almost every way, that for the life of me I can't figure out why any VC would throw more good money after bad.  At some point it is time to pull the plug -- and if it were my money, I would think that time was now.
So, if I remember the calculations correctly, Prosper has 7 weeks of operating funds left, right?

If I understand this correctly, they now have a $1 million new loan at their disposal (at 15%).  This removes bacon from fire for a few more weeks.

http://www.prospers.org/forum/prosper_news_nigel_morris_joins_board_of_directors-t17185.0.html

« Last Edit: November 10, 2009, 06:13:35 pm by Tokyo Joe »
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