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Author Topic: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won  (Read 17604 times)

cowdog

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2009, 05:10:46 pm »

I was convinced 2 years ago, and am still convinced today that it was all fraud.

CL had eloan and knew the borrowers who were out there, mostly because they were attempting to get loans with eloan. He knew they couldn't get loans either at banks, or even at his eloan business... but they still wanted and would take loans. The problem of course was that their credit was terrible, they didn't have jobs, or were already overextended and they most likely wouldn't repay a loan.

So, hundreds of thousands of customers and no product for them... time to make one, and preferably one with no personal investment needed. Hence Prosper was born. Knowing it would go bk, the best hedge was to get lots of big name VC, make a big internet splash, and hire someone who was an old pro at businesses going broke (JW).

Every action then undertaken by management not only indicates this to me, but reinforces that fraud was the prime directive... not satisfying the money back guarantee for fraud, JW droning on about a lack of resources and therefore not even a couch in the waiting room, wiping forums so there was no negativity obvious, wiping the city and other pii from listings, ballot stuffing the best corporate blog contest, shoddy verification, lack of collections, etc., ad nauseum.

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NewHorizon

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2009, 06:14:29 pm »

CL had eloan and knew the borrowers who were out there, mostly because they were attempting to get loans with eloan. He knew they couldn't get loans either at banks, or even at his eloan business... but they still wanted and would take loans. The problem of course was that their credit was terrible, they didn't have jobs, or were already overextended and they most likely wouldn't repay a loan.

Excellent post.  This makes tons of sense to me.

(...Tho' I might change "...they still wanted and would take loans" to
"... they still wanted and would take our money."  But whatever.)
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Fred93

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2009, 10:14:30 am »

Not deriding the previous blog posts, but this one seemed better written than the rest.
Did you have help?

Took more time.

Quote
"What did they do to find these people? They don't say."
Actually, I thought he did...?
Quote
How could we be so stupid as to file a suit against a person using the wrong address?  ... Furthermore, we preformed a second round test in which the addresses on which no return letter had been received were sent a second letter – again approximately 60% of these were returned within a month of mailing.

In that paragraph he's telling you what he did before he filed suit.  After he filed suit, and the sent process servers to find the people, they couldn't find them.  They don't say what techniques the process servers tried.  (Did they just knock on the door during the day and get no answer, or did they check that the house was empty?  Or was there even a house at that address?  Remember the scene in the Blues Brothers movie?)  They don't describe any "skip tracing" ie efforts to determine where someone may have gone.  (Ask the neighbors, ask the bank who foreclosed on the home, etc.)  All we know is that the process server gave up.

Beerbud1

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2009, 10:20:13 am »

Fred, thank you! Its wonderfully written, I just read the whole blog post, its articulate, direct and thorough.
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Tokyo Joe

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2009, 04:26:22 pm »

I was convinced 2 years ago, and am still convinced today that it was all fraud.

CL had eloan and knew the borrowers who were out there, mostly because they were attempting to get loans with eloan. He knew they couldn't get loans either at banks, or even at his eloan business... but they still wanted and would take loans. The problem of course was that their credit was terrible, they didn't have jobs, or were already overextended and they most likely wouldn't repay a loan.

So, hundreds of thousands of customers and no product for them... time to make one, and preferably one with no personal investment needed. Hence Prosper was born. Knowing it would go bk, the best hedge was to get lots of big name VC, make a big internet splash, and hire someone who was an old pro at businesses going broke (JW).

Every action then undertaken by management not only indicates this to me, but reinforces that fraud was the prime directive... not satisfying the money back guarantee for fraud, JW droning on about a lack of resources and therefore not even a couch in the waiting room, wiping forums so there was no negativity obvious, wiping the city and other pii from listings, ballot stuffing the best corporate blog contest, shoddy verification, lack of collections, etc., ad nauseum.



This is an extremely good articulation of my own feelings on the whole shebang, although mine were too vague to put into coherent words.  But yes, this is how it seemed to me, and ever since JW took a fast powder, I've felt such a scenario is even more elikely to have been what Larsen had in mind.

That said, I don't doubt that he thought it coulda or mighta somehow all worked out, somewhere in his mind...  But I also think he was aware that it was unlikely to.

If not, then Fred's right: he was naive.  But this brings naivete to a whole new level.
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yankeefan

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2009, 06:23:35 pm »

Excellent blog, Fred.
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havastat

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2009, 12:02:44 am »

I don't believe it was fraud, although as others have pointed out the outcome is the same.

Prosper operated in the mode of a 1990s dot-com company start-up company. The basic goal of such an outfit is to come up with a concept and devise software to implement the concept, and then sit back and watch the money roll in. The idea is that if one has a good concept and good software, the business is supposed to run itself. The whole world of back-office operations and individualized customer interactions was thought a relic of high-overhead, non-scalable brick and mortar businesses, a relic a successful dot-com is expected to figure out how to leave behind.

It was on this basis that Prosper's basic value proposition characterized the entire spread between what a bank's depositors get and what it's borrowers pay as pure profit potenial. If it could replace the entire banking business by a concept and some software, with no need for an expensive back office, individualized evaluations by highly paid professionals,  etc., it could make huge sums by cutting out the middleman and all the middleman costs, extracting only a small transaction cost on each loan and doing loans in volume. Its whole goal was to be a low-cost, high-volume, completely-automated operation. It would achieve the holy grail of dot-com entrepeneurship. Prosper would simply be a broker, simply a place on the internet where lender and borrower would meet. It would get a fee for each meeting. What happened afterwards needn't be its concern, or a charge on its purse.

I didn't work of course. Prosper, and we, have learned some of the same things a lot of other dot-com start-ups, mostly defunct, have learned. And like them, we've also learned it the hard way.

The first thing we learned is the middlemen didn't actually sit and do nothing for their money. They provide valuable and expensive services essential for success, and hence earn and need to charge a much higher fee per transaction than contemplated by a high-concept, low-overhead, completely automated, look-ma-no-hands value proposition. Screening out fraudsters and collections cost. They require the sort of professional analysis and individualized decision-making and follow-up, and a staff to do it, that simply costs more and is less dot-com like than the Prosper model contemplated.

The second thing we've learned is that loans require a certain amount of individual attention and judgement: completely automating the process sounds great in theory but turns out not to work in practice. Success comes in finding the right balance.

Lending Club has been somewhat more successful than Prosper in part because it was less revolutionary. It behaved somewhat more like a traditional bank, doing a lot more work on each transaction, screening borrowers, setting prices, running collections, and communicating with both borroers and lenders. In addition, both Lending Club and Prosper have substantially increased their fees, basically through a ~3% origination fee. The new fee structure still has them keeping less of the take than a traditional bank, but a lot more than Prosper's original low-fee hgh-volume model.

Both may have to become even more bank-like, even more actively involved in loans than at present, to ultimately succeed.  
« Last Edit: November 08, 2009, 12:07:01 am by havastat »
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cowdog

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2009, 01:21:11 am »

I don't believe it was fraud, although as others have pointed out the outcome is the same.

etc.


Perhaps you are forgetting something with all this... even at the height of loan originations, there was no way the company could be viable. Management at that time stated originations had to be 3 or 4 times those highs to stay in business.

There was never a chance.
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Fred93

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2009, 01:35:25 am »

even at the height of loan originations, there was no way the company could be viable. Management at that time stated originations had to be 3 or 4 times those highs to stay in business.

There was never a chance.

A need to grow to a sustainable scale does not imply fraudulent intent.

They hoped to grow.  I think they still do.

HollowOak

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2009, 02:57:45 am »

I was convinced 2 years ago, and am still convinced today that it was all fraud.

What is the motive? In your scenario, how does CL benefit from this scheme?

My theory that I advanced a looong time back and that I don't care to try and find now, would meld in with some of your motivation, but not include the fraud component.

Sure, he noticed that there was a demand for cheap(er) money out there, from people who could not or would not secure such money with assets. In Business School style, he then put together a business to explore how this would work. That means that he needed a LOT of money, more than he or any VC would risk. Thus they needed lenders to fund the model. It is always safer and easier (al la limited liability corporations) to use OPM and retain ownership. Each lender theoretically would not invest more than they could afford to risk and if it turns sour, then no lender would have lost more than what they have lent.

Now they had a vehicle to experiment with. They tweaked a number of parameters, encountered regulatory hurdles, cleared some of those and so forth.

What Larsen now has is a company, an infrastructure and the experience and knowledge of how this business would work.

I'm not sure he still has first mover advantage, since I think LendingClub has overtaken Prosper, but Prosper is still a theoretically very valuable entity - ti the tune of at least $20 million, I'd say.
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bamalucky

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2009, 09:12:12 am »

Quote
What is the motive?

I think their motive was to somehow sucker someone into buying them ala Eloan. I don't think CL ever planned to be stuck with Prosper this long,so no I don't think there was ever a 4 year(& counting) plan of operation.
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ira01

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #26 on: November 08, 2009, 11:55:12 am »

What Larsen now has is a company, an infrastructure and the experience and knowledge of how this business would work.

I'm not sure he still has first mover advantage, since I think LendingClub has overtaken Prosper, but Prosper is still a theoretically very valuable entity - ti the tune of at least $20 million, I'd say.

If those assets are worth $20M, then Prosper also probably has negative goodwill in the amount of $25M.  There are what, 40,000 lenders of whom more than half lost money?  And a very vocal group of lenders here that work hard to publicize Prosper's many flaws.  And a pending class action suit that could possibly result in an eight-figure judgment.  And the statute of limitations won't run out on other causes of action, such as breach of contract and fraud, for a while yet.  Maybe I just lack vision, but I don't see Prosper as being worth anything.
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bamalucky

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #27 on: November 08, 2009, 01:00:07 pm »

HO,can you break down that $20 million?
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cowdog

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #28 on: November 08, 2009, 01:55:42 pm »

OK, let's just back up a bit -- for those who think that JUST MAYBE it wasn't fraud.

In case you forgot, Prosper was shut down by the SEC for selling unregistered securities.

The entire platform was fraud from day one.
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havastat

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Re: Fred93's Blog - Paradise Lost; Deadbeats Won
« Reply #29 on: November 08, 2009, 03:59:35 pm »

There's a big difference between a disagreeement about what regulatory category a new product falls in and fraud.

Congress is currently considering a bill to take away the SEC's power to regulate p2p and reclassify p2p lending as a banking product rather than a security.

Surely this change in the law doesn't make Prosper 3.0 or Lending Club fraudulent. It just reclassifies the category under which the product will be regulated. If the law passes, then immediately after passage, Prosper will have been selling unregistered  banking products.

Surely not being able to predict how the government will ultimately classify a new product isn't fraud. The existence of the bill in Congress suggests that the basis for thinking of the product as a banking product rather than a security, while incorrect under current legal interpretations, wasn't completely unreasonable, and certainly not fraudulent.
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