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Poll

Are you still lending after recent changes?

Yes - At the same or higher levels as before
- 10 (13.9%)
Yes - But more cautiously
- 6 (8.3%)
No - I am waiting to see new default rates
- 3 (4.2%)
No - I won't bid again, cashing out as notes mature
- 47 (65.3%)
No - I won't bid again, selling notes and bailing out!
- 6 (8.3%)

Total Members Voted: 69


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Author Topic: Are you still lending after recent changes?  (Read 56375 times)

Snapshot

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #30 on: January 15, 2011, 12:34:56 am »

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/casey-ketterling/4/512/392

Says he was: •Senior Software Engineer at Prosper Marketplace, Inc.

Who would have known?
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ira01

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #31 on: January 15, 2011, 12:46:42 am »

>> Completely bogus.  As can be seen from Fred93's monthly charts, Prosper's performance got no worse due to the global macroeconomic conditions than it was before.  Roughly 40% of all Prosper 1.0 loans defaulted, including those made in 2006.

Do loans default when they are originated or when times get tough? While it doesn't explain every default, times got tough even (actually especially) for the loans made in 2006. "Completely bogus", hardly.

As seen from Fred's charts, the early loans went kablooey at a ridiculous rate long before the economy turned sour.

Quote
>> No one here blames Prosper for things beyond its control, or even for our losses.  Rather, we blame Prosper for its own shameful conduct.  If you spent a little time reading here, you will see that Prosper has done much worthy of all the blame it gets.  It wasn't the "worst financial crisis since the great depression" that made Prosper executives spout ridiculously absurd misrepresentations about actual lender performance to any journalist who would listen, even long after the truth was well known to Prosper and us here (who often pointed out to Prosper the errors in its methodologies).  

Oh, I've spent a more than a little time reading here. You assume because you type something into the internets that it is fact. I've always loved it that people dedicate themselves to methodology error finding instead of creating value in this great society of ours.

There are an enormous number of well-documented facts here.  Feel free to point out any you disagree with.

Quote
>> It wasn't the "global environment of rampant default" that made Prosper ignore its so-called "100% identity theft guarantee" except and until such cases as lenders were able to publicly shame Prosper into abiding by its legal obligation to repurchase identity-theft loans in those relatively few cases where lenders had sufficient information about a borrower's identity to put 2 and 2 together.  

I am not aware of any cases of this, nor do I think you are other than suspicion. A key component to an identity theft is actual evidence that an identity has been stolen or misused.

Uh huh.  How about the infamous Leporello ID-theft case?  He not only found (and provided to Prosper) evidence that a particular loan was identity theft, he even gave Prosper the name and phone number of the NYPD detective who was working the criminal case.   :o  Yet Prosper still refused to repurchase the loan, until Lep made the whole sad saga public causing a huge shitstorm to erupt on Prosper's forum (when the loan was about a YEAR delinquent).  THEN Prosper repurchased the loan.  

Regarding ID-theft, it was Prosper LENDERS (not Prosper employees) who discovered many cases of ID-theft, including the famous Victoria Crawford case (in which she took out a dozen bogus Prosper loans under different ID's -- Prosper used the information discovered by Prosper lenders to sue her and obtain an injunction freezing her bank accounts).  So how did Prosper use this wonderful and free resource?  It methodically stripped all personal information from borrower listings (despite Prosper's own official Privacy Policy expressly allowing borrowers to include such information), thereby preventing lenders from ferreting out fraud (and thereby saving Prosper the money of having to repurchase the bogus loans).  You think it was a coincidence that Prosper repurchased almost ZERO loans after its actions to hide such fraud from lenders?  Read http://www.prospers.org/forum/empty-t7013.0.html for more information.

Quote
>> It wasn't the global economic conditions that made Prosper repeatedly breach its legal obligations to lenders, including its failure to conduct junk debt sales as required.  

I agree that expectations were violated on timing of debt sales. But you have to realize that there came a time in this happily diminished crisis when the debt was effectively unsellable.

It wasn't "expectations" that were violated -- it was Prosper's legal obligations.  And your assertion that the debt was "unsellable" is inaccurate.  Prosper admitted that it had a JDB that offered to purchase the defaults in early 2008 -- but Prosper didn't like the supposedly "unacceptable" (to PROSPER) conditions attached to the offer (which Prosper steadfastly refused to explain to lenders, despite the fact that WE were the OWNERS of the debt in question).  It is no wonder that lenders think that a likely "unacceptable" condition was that Prosper had to repurchase any debt found to be identity-theft.  That would, of course, be totally "unacceptable" to Prosper, because then it would have to repurchase the loans from the lenders at 100 cents on the dollar.

Moreover, in another case, Traveler505 made a binding offer to purchase one particular default, via a certified letter to Prosper, explaining that the laws of New Mexico (where both he and the borrower resided) did NOT require a license for such a transaction or to conduct collections activities on the loan once purchased, and offering to indemnify Prosper for any liability due to selling him the loan.  Instead of acting in accordance with its fiduciary duty to lenders to maximize recovery on defaulted loans, Prosper rejected Traveler's offer, and sold the loan to a JDB for HALF of Traveler's offer -- collectively costing the lenders on that one loan $500.  Certainly that loan wasn't "unsellable."

Quote
>> It wasn't the borrowers that made Prosper fuck up its litigation test project beyond all conceivable belief.  

This remains a mystery. But let me offer this: Occam's razor, a concept that is yielded to in favor of conspiracy theory on these forums, might suggest that credit card companies have abused the legal system to the point where statute and judiciary are unduly in favor of the borrower.

I can tell you from personal experience that is complete bunk.  I am a volunteer small claims judge sitting frequently in Los Angeles Superior Court.  I hear collections cases all the time, brought by every type of institutional creditor -- payday lenders, credit card lenders, check cashing places, auto finance companies, retail finance companies, rent-to-own places, etc.  A typical small claims calendar (one day, either morning or afternoon) might have 10 or more such cases.  In the vast majority of such cases the defendant doesn't show up in court, and in the vast majority of such cases the creditor wins a default judgment.  Even when the debtor defendant does show up in court, most of the time they admit they owe the money but since they don't have money, they just want a payment plan.  Prosper's legal cases should have been a slam dunk.  Instead, they were fucked up.  In many of the cases, Prosper and/or its attorneys simply didn't get the defendant served properly/timely, or didn't get the proper default paperwork filed.  

Quote
>> It wasn't the "worst financial crisis since the great depression" that made Prosper ban lenders who tried to alert other lenders about specific cases of borrower fraud, including the infamous case of the lender who raised Prosper ire (instead of receiving its thanks) for posting a link to an FBI press release pointing out that a borrower with a then-active listing was under federal indictment for loan fraud, and then eventually deleting its entire official forum without notice when that forum became the repository of too much negative information about Prosper (and then threatening a frivolous "cyber-squatting" lawsuit against the .org member who had archived the forum and made it publicly available after Prosper's attempt to hide history -- until that .org member got a lawyer who promptly made Prosper STFU).  Etc., etc., etc.

Does etc, etc, etc mean you have run out of things to say or are you tired after your 10,000th+ negative nancy post?

It means that if you have read here as much as you say, you should know much of this.

Quote
Would you want to borrow from a bank where dozens of holier than thou people publicly ridiculed you in a baseless manner?

Please point out the baselessness.
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ira01

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #32 on: January 15, 2011, 12:47:18 am »

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/casey-ketterling/4/512/392

Says he was: •Senior Software Engineer at Prosper Marketplace, Inc.

Who would have known?

You should have waited for him to deny it before outing him.   :ninja:
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Snapshot

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #33 on: January 15, 2011, 12:48:20 am »

I'm guessing that if prosper stays private all that stock he has isn't worth toilet paper.

No need to make him lie about it, we know how they are.

At least he doesn't have any naked pics on the web like other members of his family/friends. That's all I'm saying.


« Last Edit: January 15, 2011, 12:49:59 am by Snapshot »
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Fred93

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #34 on: January 15, 2011, 12:54:17 am »

I don't have the same amount of time to produce a possible alternative of your analysis but a quick google search led me to this site, which actually looks a little shady to me but struck me with a similar chart that you like to present:

They're looking at mortgages.  I was looking at prosper loans.  These two different data sets behave differently, as you can see by observing the data.


Quote
You assume that default rates and unemployment rates are tightly corrolated.

No assumption.  I observe the data.  Prosper default rates don't correlate to unemployement.  Therefore, I conclude that it is incorrect to blame the economy for the bad default rates on prosper loans.

Data

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #35 on: January 15, 2011, 01:38:44 am »

 I observe the data.

I guess it is time to close the curtains on shower night.

 - data
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God-Father

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #36 on: January 15, 2011, 02:17:22 am »

I might bid in the future if
- my state was allowed to bid
- I had any real belief that Prosper would still be around in three years.

So basically if they were bought out and all the current management and owners sacked .... gotcha.
I guess that could be one way.  Another is for an investor to put in enough money to fund Prosper for a few years, instead of a few months.  Another would be for Prosper to become profitable.
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mothandrust

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #37 on: January 15, 2011, 02:53:23 am »

If the VC folks are lending to Prosper at a 15% rate (no borrower default risk) then every loan on Prosper should have an interest rate higher than that.

If Warren Buffett wanted a Prosper loan, it should theoretically go for 15.01%, where the 0.01% premium represents the risk that Buffett will go broke in 3 years--but it should never get to 14.99% or lower since Prosper could go bankrupt.

Remember, you aren't lending to Warren Buffett; Prosper.Com is lending to Warren Buffett, and you are lending to Prosper.Com--just like you might lend to Pets.Com or any other internet startup that burns through cash.

And if you're going to do that, you'd better be getting 15% like the VC's are.  And then you have to worry about someone defaulting who isn't quite as creditworthy as Warren Buffett.
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kenL

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #38 on: January 15, 2011, 01:12:52 pm »

Do loans default when they are originated or when times get tough? While it doesn't explain every default, times got tough even (actually especially) for the loans made in 2006. "Completely bogus", hardly.

Unfortunately, you make this argument (excuse for prosper) without any data to back yourself up.  

The data shows the opposite of what you claim.  Prosper's default rates didn't track the economy at all.

I wrote a blog entry about this...
http://fred93blog.blogspot.com/2009/10/prospercom-dont-blame-economy.html


Of course the recession had a negative impact on prosper loan performance. If a person loses a job they will be less likely to pay back a loan, even a prosper loan.

I've got my own theory about why this is not so obvious in the charts. I think prosper had been making improvements and trying to reduce the number of fraudulent borrowers throughout the 1.0 years, especially in 2007 when how bad things were was becoming undeniably apparent to them. They probably weren't disclosing such info because they didn't want to admit how many fraudulent borrowers there were, but by 2008 they significantly reduced that amount. Because of this 2006 and 2007 turned out real bad. I believe if not for the economic crises loans made in 2008 would have performed much better and could have possibly even turned an overall profit.

There is some data to back up my theory, if you assume fraudulent borrowers will more often make no payments or very few payments than non fraudsters. The percentage of loans that stopped making payments during the first 3 months of their term decreased each year from 2006 to 2008, therefore I conclude there were less fraudulent borrowers each year.

In summary I'm saying that the improvements that prosper made during the 1.0 years had a stronger effect on loan performance than the great recession did and this is why there SEEMS to be no correlation between prosper loan performance and the recession.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2011, 01:33:58 pm by kenL »
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JammingJAY

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #39 on: January 15, 2011, 01:22:23 pm »

If you still lend on prosper you are

1. Too stupid to have the money you do, and

2. smart enough to correct the situation.

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The old rule has changed: it seems that people now do have a right not only to their own opinions, but to their own facts.

I'm now trysexual. The GLBT folks are so behind (no pun).

kenL

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #40 on: January 15, 2011, 01:43:32 pm »

If you still lend on prosper you are

1. Too stupid to have the money you do, and

2. smart enough to correct the situation.

if you are still complaining about the things Prosper did 3 years ago you have

1) OCD,

2) time to see a psychiatrist


Sorry, I just couldn't resist :)
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Beerbud1

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #41 on: January 15, 2011, 01:46:53 pm »

If you still lend on prosper you are

1. Too stupid to have the money you do, and

2. smart enough to correct the situation.

if you are still complaining about the things Prosper did 3 years ago you have

1) OCD,

2) time to see a psychiatrist


Sorry, I just couldn't resist :)

May we Know your prosper lender name...Please?
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kenL

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #42 on: January 15, 2011, 01:48:16 pm »

oh please, are you kidding?

If not, here you go.
lendstats_com
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Beerbud1

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #43 on: January 15, 2011, 01:52:05 pm »

oh please, are you kidding?

If not, here you go.
lendstats_com

Did you attend either Prosper Days events?
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kenL

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Re: Are you still lending after recent changes?
« Reply #44 on: January 15, 2011, 01:57:07 pm »

No, why are you asking?
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