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[xraider]

Ray, someone else posted that Prosper's loans continue to go south, so I think you're on to something.

[NewHorizon]

...quite likely that it will prove big enough for two, and the second fiddle player may not end up doing so badly.

I think I would agree that there's room for two.

But there's more to being successful than having space for you in an industry and paralleling revenue/expense curves of your more successful peer. 

There's still the whole ability-to-execute thing - which is more intrinsic than "externalities", no?  This is things like retroactive LRA's, not filing as a creditor when a borrower files for bankruptcy, practically no transparency on the collections front, etc.  And maybe you'll let me include blowing away Prosper community forums without notice - altho' that was a while back, now, and the cast of characters has changed...?

[havastat]

...quite likely that it will prove big enough for two, and the second fiddle player may not end up doing so badly.

I think I would agree that there's room for two.

But there's more to being successful than having space for you in an industry and paralleling revenue/expense curves of your more successful peer. 

There's still the whole ability-to-execute thing - which is more intrinsic than "externalities", no?  This is things like retroactive LRA's, not filing as a creditor when a borrower files for bankruptcy, practically no transparency on the collections front, etc.  And maybe you'll let me include blowing away Prosper community forums without notice - altho' that was a while back, now, and the cast of characters has changed...?

Well, Lendstats' Performance Summary has Prosper providing better returns than Lending Club in every year since the 2009 registration except the current year. And for the current year the loans are so new it may be too early to tell if there's any trend or not.

Prosper   
Vintage ROI Age(m) Loans 
2012 7.6% 5.6 15867 
2011 7.3% 15.2 11214 
2010 9.5% 27.8 5640 
2009 8.7% 35.7 2041 
2008 -2.8% 36 11354 
2007 -7.1% 36 11280 
2006 -3.9% 36 5813 

LendingClub 
Vintage ROI Age(m) Loans
2012 9.2% 5.1 37754
2011 6.8% 15.4 21721
2010 6.1% 27.2 12537
2009 5.2% 35.9 5279
2008 2.7% 36 2393
2007 0.2% 36 603

[NewHorizon]

Maybe we're both guilty of talking past each other...