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LC IPO

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loanuniverse:
Got the email and opened the Fidelity account.  Could not tie the checking account to it, but we will see.

When it comes to IPOs, I have gotten lucky in the last 6 out 7 that I have been able to participate in the last couple of years. I look at the numbers and the possible hype. I have not looked at the numbers, but I see this as a possible pop because of the attractiveness of the industry to the regular investor so I will get in if I can.

Blumoves:
Hey loanuniverse or anyone else for that matter,
Based on your previous experience with this type of thing, how much do you think they will allow us to invest?  I can't imagine they would allow us to put up $500,000 if we wanted.  I am guessing there is going to be a cap to the amount we can invest, any idea on the amount?

loanuniverse:

--- Quote from: Blumoves on November 26, 2014, 09:42:53 pm ---Hey loanuniverse or anyone else for that matter,
Based on your previous experience with this type of thing, how much do you think they will allow us to invest?  I can't imagine they would allow us to put up $500,000 if we wanted.  I am guessing there is going to be a cap to the amount we can invest, any idea on the amount?

--- End quote ---
The way that I have seen it work is that the Company allocates a certain amount of shares from the IPO for their "fans" or "members". Then those shares are distributed amongst those that participate.

Usually you do not get the full allocation of shares that you want to buy. However, you get more if you bid for more. Example: A total of 1,000 shares are allocated for lendingclub members.

Investor A says that he is willing to buy 200 shares
Investor B says that he is willing to buy 800 shares
Investor C says that he is willing to buy 1,000 shares

Since the demand is more than the supply then what they usually do is divide the supply and A might get 100, B might get 400, and C might get 500.

Take into consideration that there could be a lot of variations to this, they could put set a minimum number of shares allocated to investors. Usually there is no cap in the amount you are willing to buy, but you most certainly will not get your full allocation unless the IPO has very little demand.

Fred93:
Here's the calculation.  Based on many assumptions (guesses) etc.  Assumptions are blue.  Result is red.

1. The IPO goes out at $18/sh and $4B valuation, implies 222.2M shares total.
2. IPO is rumored to be aiming at raising $650M, which would be 36.1M shares.
3. The DSP is set at 5% of shares, that would be 1.8M shares.
4. There will be 18,000 participants in the DSP, leaving 100 shares for each person on the average.
5. Note that they haven't said how these shares will be allocated among individual directors, employees, lenders, etc.   I argue that I should get more than you, because ... well I'll think of something.

The valuation guess is probably close.  The number of shares allocated to DSP is a cruder guess, and I think could be anywhere from 2% to 10%.  The number of participants is anybody's guess.  Fidelity is said to have said that 50,000 people signed up, but I doubt that a large fraction will follow thru.

If they were bold, and set the DSP at 10%, and then only 9,000 people participated, that would increase the result to 400 shares per person.  On the other hand, if they set the DSP at 2.5%, and 36,000 people participate, then the result is 25 shares per person.

Blumoves:
Thanks guys that was helpful.  Fred, loved your breakdown.  Very informative.

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