Print

[Fred93]

I've updated my late loan stats chart, adding the 12/15/07 data points.



This chart, along with discussion, appears as a new entry today in my blog http://prospers.org/blogs/Fred93  

I included as an example a calculation of default rate for Prosper's Oct'06 loans (about 20%/year), and comparison of same to the default rate mentioned in a recent Yahoo article about Prosper (3%).

I used to post these charts every 2 weeks on the prosper.com forum.  Prosper has disallowed that a few weeks ago (apparently now disallowing all graphics in messages), so I switched to posting the charts in my blog.  Now that we have a public section in the prospers.org forum, this might be a better place.

[arebelspy]

Sigh.

[112233]

some historical context
http://www.prosperreport.com/threads/6/5/6523.0.HTM
http://www.prosperreport.com/threads/1/1/2/11290.0.HTM

[Tokyo Joe]

Significant improvement for loans made since since July-August...

[LoanChimp]

Significant improvement for loans made since since July-August...

groups, baby...

[traveler505]

Significant improvement for loans made since since July-August...

groups, baby...

Group fees weren't eliminated until September 13.  The change in slope begins with July loans.

[LoanChimp]

Significant improvement for loans made since since July-August...

groups, baby...

Group fees weren't eliminated until September 13.  The change in slope begins with July loans.

The match reward was the first thing to go in the summer sometime. (June I think)

[hcsader05]

Thank you for your work. Is chart referring to 1) percentage of loans currently late, or 2) percentages of loans that have been late but may have been brought current since?

[cubbiesnextyr]

Thank you for your work. Is chart referring to 1) percentage of loans currently late, or 2) percentages of loans that have been late but may have been brought current since?

1.

[GaAs]

Significant improvement for loans made since since July-August...

The key is the slope of the line, and the July/August/September lines have much shallower slopes.

There's also a clear gap between the loans originated in March 2007 and earlier, also in a positive direction.

The real question is whether this will continue, or whether the gaps will close with time.

[RussA]

Thanks, Fred.  I noticed that your blog page is the first hit for "prosper late loan statistics" on Google.

[Fred93]

Thank you for your work. Is chart referring to 1) percentage of loans currently late, or 2) percentages of loans that have been late but may have been brought current since?

Currently 1 month late or worse (2,3,4+,default)

[RussA]

I know it’s been done before, but every time I see your chart, I think of the response Prosper’s staff might exhibit. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1owcncKCHg  A classic commercial never gets old.

[LoanChimp]

I know it’s been done before, but every time I see your chart, I think of the response Prosper’s staff might exhibit. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1owcncKCHg  A classic commercial never gets old.

For some reason, I love that commercial... 

[leporello]

I know it’s been done before, but every time I see your chart, I think of the response Prosper’s staff might exhibit. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1owcncKCHg  A classic commercial never gets old.

For some reason, I love that commercial... 

Which one of them are you?