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Author Topic: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month  (Read 15692 times)

j9359

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #15 on: December 29, 2007, 02:19:11 pm »

Looks like we have reached a plateau and either Prosper is going to find a way to move things to a higher level or it will die.
IMHO, the flaky moderation and then the final killing off of the old forums was a huge mistake.
And collections is a big problem area.  Prosper should have had a better plan to begin with.  Perhaps the "new agency test" will improve things but we will have to wait and see.  Im going to take a break from lending for the next month or two to see how the bets Ive placed recently work out.
john.

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #16 on: December 29, 2007, 04:33:33 pm »

Kiva works because of community, and Prosper might have been working at one time, at least on some level, when they had groups, forums and open discussion.

The whole idea of Prosper was community, but then they killed the community by killing groups, forums, and any opposing point of view.

So the question is: Are CL and JW the biggest idiots to ever walk the face of the planet, or was this planned to take VC for a ride?

 ;D

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Mtnchick

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #17 on: December 29, 2007, 04:45:25 pm »

So the question is: Are CL and JW the biggest idiots to ever walk the face of the planet, or was this planned to take VC for a ride?

 ;D



Cant I choose both? ;)
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ducks

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #18 on: December 29, 2007, 05:18:34 pm »

Ducks,did you even view the links.? The last 8 months are flat
Yes, I viewed the chart, and noticed that every month in 2007 was much better than the same month in 2006, even December. Few lenders can claim that!

Are you kidding?  Originations have been declining since April, and flat since July.  It is quite possible that Jan. 08 will be less than Jan. 07, but even if it (barely) avoids that fate, March 08 will surely be less than March 07, given that March 07 was over $8.2M (compared to around $6.3M a month since July).  The year over year decline in April 08 will be even worse.
If January 2008 is not significantly better than January 2007, then I think we will have something to talk about. Id rather watch for one more month than try to make predictions.
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Urbi_et_Orbi

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #19 on: December 29, 2007, 05:42:43 pm »

Registered lenders:

January 2007: 26,600         
December 2007: 65,340  (145% increase)

Funding: Basically flat

j9359

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #20 on: December 29, 2007, 06:30:44 pm »

Fewer big lenders?
Or borrowers now register as lenders first to get verified?
john.
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traveler505

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2007, 07:32:24 pm »

Ducks,did you even view the links.? The last 8 months are flat
Yes, I viewed the chart, and noticed that every month in 2007 was much better than the same month in 2006, even December. Few lenders can claim that!

Are you kidding?  Originations have been declining since April, and flat since July.  It is quite possible that Jan. 08 will be less than Jan. 07, but even if it (barely) avoids that fate, March 08 will surely be less than March 07, given that March 07 was over $8.2M (compared to around $6.3M a month since July).  The year over year decline in April 08 will be even worse.
If January 2008 is not significantly better than January 2007, then I think we will have something to talk about. Id rather watch for one more month than try to make predictions.

If we were talking about a mature, established, profitable business, then, yes, having each month be a bit better (after adjusting for inflation) than the same month of the previous year is adequate performance. 

But we are talking about a business that did not exist (except in a friends and family beta test phase) two years ago, and which (according to the CEO) needs 4 or 5 times the volume to be profitable, the lack of growth from month to month within a year is catastrophic.

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ducks

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2007, 09:11:22 pm »

All Im saying is that well know more after we see Januarys statistics. Im sure that the last few months have been less than Prospers executives and investors expected. However, Prosper received another $20M funding in June, so I expect they havent quit yet.
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HollowOak

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #23 on: December 29, 2007, 09:37:58 pm »

My take on this is that Prosper itself has put a big spoke in the wheel of lending growth by providing bidding guidance on each bid lenders place. On that basis, I expect to see a dramatic cut-back in dubious loans funding, with a resulting impact on the overall funding levels of loans. However, in a few months this should start feeding through to the bottom line and result in less loans becoming delinquent. Prosper can then base its hopes on a steady or exponential growth on "new" funding growth based on the positive experiences of the "new" lenders.

I postulated as much some time back in a piece I wrote.
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ira01

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #24 on: December 29, 2007, 09:38:36 pm »

All Im saying is that well know more after we see Januarys statistics. Im sure that the last few months have been less than Prospers executives and investors expected. However, Prosper received another $20M funding in June, so I expect they havent quit yet.

But in June, everything would have seemed just fine.  Sure, May was down from April, but it was still the 3rd best month ever, and could easily have been chalked up to a blip.  Moreover, the June VC financing was probably arranged in May, so the last months performance at that time (April) would have been the best ever.  Unfortunately for the VCs, their $20M came just as Prosper was kicking off 6 months of flat performance.  Although, frankly, I cant be too sympathetic to the VCs, because if they would have done some due dilligence in the forums at that time, they would (should) have had a lot of probing questions for management.
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Ferrix

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #25 on: December 29, 2007, 09:47:22 pm »

However, in a few months this should start feeding through to the bottom line and result in less loans becoming delinquent. Prosper can then base its hopes on a steady or exponential growth on "new" funding growth based on the positive experiences of the "new" lenders.

Once they get back on track maybe theyll stop persecuting the unofficial sites.  Hey, its possible!
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traveler505

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #26 on: December 29, 2007, 09:47:48 pm »

My take on this is that Prosper itself has put a big spoke in the wheel of lending growth by providing bidding guidance on each bid lenders place. On that basis, I expect to see a dramatic cut-back in dubious loans funding, with a resulting impact on the overall funding levels of loans. However, in a few months this should start feeding through to the bottom line and result in less loans becoming delinquent. Prosper can then base its hopes on a steady or exponential growth on "new" funding growth based on the positive experiences of the "new" lenders.

I postulated as much some time back in a piece I wrote.

That assumes an ample supply of quality borrowers (with quality being defined by Prospers bidding guidance).  I think that will be the bottleneck.

ETA: (By HollowOak). My sincere apologies. I accidentally modified Traveler505s post instead of quoting it. I have now removed my comment and will add it in a quote.  (Damned moderating powers ran amok.)
« Last Edit: December 29, 2007, 10:01:10 pm by HollowOak »
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HollowOak

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #27 on: December 29, 2007, 10:02:14 pm »

My take on this is that Prosper itself has put a big spoke in the wheel of lending growth by providing bidding guidance on each bid lenders place. On that basis, I expect to see a dramatic cut-back in dubious loans funding, with a resulting impact on the overall funding levels of loans. However, in a few months this should start feeding through to the bottom line and result in less loans becoming delinquent. Prosper can then base its hopes on a steady or exponential growth on "new" funding growth based on the positive experiences of the "new" lenders.

I postulated as much some time back in a piece I wrote.

That assumes an ample supply of quality borrowers (with quality being defined by Prospers bidding guidance).  I think that will be the bottleneck.

That, I agree with you, might be a problem, but it is a different problem and one might think that they could spin that in a very positive light if the need should arise.
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ducks

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #28 on: December 29, 2007, 10:10:27 pm »

That assumes an ample supply of quality borrowers (with quality being defined by Prospers bidding guidance).  I think that will be the bottleneck.
Thats a very good point. The problem for Prosper is that quality borrowers will probably want lower rates than lenders want to receive, especially considering that any smart lender will be including a decent margin for risk. The quality borrowers dont think they could ever default, so they dont understate that rate cushion. Also, few quality borrowers have experience with unsecured loans, so their rate expectations are based on secured loans.

Furthermore, banks and other lenders are competing even more strongly for the prime market in a flight to quality.
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nonattender

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Re: Prosper.com growth: flat for third straight month
« Reply #29 on: December 30, 2007, 12:58:55 am »

My take on this is that Prosper itself has put a big spoke in the wheel of lending growth by providing bidding guidance on each bid lenders place. On that basis, I expect to see a dramatic cut-back in dubious loans funding, with a resulting impact on the overall funding levels of loans. However, in a few months this should start feeding through to the bottom line and result in less loans becoming delinquent. Prosper can then base its hopes on a steady or exponential growth on "new" funding growth based on the positive experiences of the "new" lenders.

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