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[bamalucky]

http://www.lendingstats.com/loansFunded

Look at the bottom columns on the right.. % Delinquent

This is ALL prosper loans

[leporello]

http://www.lendingstats.com/loansFunded

Look at the bottom columns on the right.. % Delinquent

This is ALL prosper loans

Further proof that the LepIra  projected default rate (which was just a back-of-the-envelope calculation) is not a pessimistic overestimate.

You heard it here, yet again: Prosper loans with a year of seasoning default at a historical rate of well over 20%.

[Mtnchick]

Am I reading that last chart correctly? Since April 07 more $$$ have been late than have been paid?? 

[leporello]

Am I reading that last chart correctly? Since April 07 more $$$ have been late than have been paid?? 

The April 07 line shows stats about loans originating in April 07 only. It's not cumulative. And yes, nearly twice as many April 07 loans have defaulted or are DQ than have been paid off.

[Mtnchick]

Am I reading that last chart correctly? Since April 07 more $$$ have been late than have been paid?? 

The April 07 line shows stats about loans originating in April 07 only. It's not cumulative. And yes, nearly twice as many April 07 loans have defaulted or are DQ than have been paid off.

OK, so that is listing loans that are "paid off" and not "timely monthly payments"? That would make the numbers look more comforting

/confused

[leporello]

Another conclusion to be drawn from that chart is that 50% more $$ are DQ or defaulted in all of Prosper history than have been paid.

[leporello]

Am I reading that last chart correctly? Since April 07 more $$$ have been late than have been paid?? 

The April 07 line shows stats about loans originating in April 07 only. It's not cumulative. And yes, nearly twice as many April 07 loans have defaulted or are DQ than have been paid off.

OK, so that is listing loans that are "paid off" and not "timely monthly payments"? That would make the numbers look more comforting

/confused

Yes, the "Paid" column is loans that are completely paid off -- at least that's how I read it. The "Current" column is loans that are current (i.e., not late in any way nor defaulted). I don't know how LS represents the "Payoff in Progress" loans, but that's a relatively small bunch of them.

[sb92075]

Code: [Select]


select substring(ObservationDate,1,7), total, count(LP.Status) as Delinquents, round((count(LP.Status)/total)*100) PCT
from LoanPerformance LP, ltotals lt
 where substring(ObservationDate,1,7) = substring(odate,1,7)
and Status not in ('Current','Paid','Payoff in progress')
group by  substring(ObservationDate,1,7)
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
| substring(ObservationDate,1,7) | total | Delinquents | PCT  |
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
| 2006-04                        |   761 |          12 |    2 |
| 2006-05                        |  1374 |          45 |    3 |
| 2006-06                        |  2068 |         134 |    6 |
| 2006-07                        |  2921 |         274 |    9 |
| 2006-08                        |  3953 |         424 |   11 |
| 2006-09                        |  4799 |         578 |   12 |
| 2006-10                        |  5867 |         845 |   14 |
| 2006-11                        |  6906 |        1039 |   15 |
| 2006-12                        |  8209 |        1386 |   17 |
| 2007-01                        |  9784 |        1602 |   16 |
| 2007-02                        | 10579 |        1710 |   16 |
| 2007-03                        | 12675 |        2457 |   19 |
| 2007-04                        | 13699 |        2735 |   20 |
| 2007-05                        | 15756 |        3659 |   23 |
| 2007-06                        | 15842 |        3185 |   20 |
| 2007-07                        | 17481 |        3985 |   23 |
| 2007-08                        | 19285 |        4786 |   25 |
| 2007-09                        | 18759 |        4323 |   23 |
| 2007-10                        | 20907 |        5449 |   26 |
| 2007-11                        | 21723 |        5939 |   27 |
| 2007-12                        | 16990 |        5143 |   30 |
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
The percentage of "delinquent" loans continues to increase;
where DELINQUENT = NOT CURRENT, NOT PAID, & NOT PAYOFF IN PROGRESS

[leporello]

Code: [Select]


select substring(ObservationDate,1,7), total, count(LP.Status) as Delinquents, round((count(LP.Status)/total)*100) PCT
from LoanPerformance LP, ltotals lt
 where substring(ObservationDate,1,7) = substring(odate,1,7)
and Status not in ('Current','Paid','Payoff in progress')
group by  substring(ObservationDate,1,7)
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
| substring(ObservationDate,1,7) | total | Delinquents | PCT  |
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
| 2006-04                        |   761 |          12 |    2 |
| 2006-05                        |  1374 |          45 |    3 |
| 2006-06                        |  2068 |         134 |    6 |
| 2006-07                        |  2921 |         274 |    9 |
| 2006-08                        |  3953 |         424 |   11 |
| 2006-09                        |  4799 |         578 |   12 |
| 2006-10                        |  5867 |         845 |   14 |
| 2006-11                        |  6906 |        1039 |   15 |
| 2006-12                        |  8209 |        1386 |   17 |
| 2007-01                        |  9784 |        1602 |   16 |
| 2007-02                        | 10579 |        1710 |   16 |
| 2007-03                        | 12675 |        2457 |   19 |
| 2007-04                        | 13699 |        2735 |   20 |
| 2007-05                        | 15756 |        3659 |   23 |
| 2007-06                        | 15842 |        3185 |   20 |
| 2007-07                        | 17481 |        3985 |   23 |
| 2007-08                        | 19285 |        4786 |   25 |
| 2007-09                        | 18759 |        4323 |   23 |
| 2007-10                        | 20907 |        5449 |   26 |
| 2007-11                        | 21723 |        5939 |   27 |
| 2007-12                        | 16990 |        5143 |   30 |
+--------------------------------+-------+-------------+------+
The percentage of "delinquent" loans continues to increase;
where DELINQUENT = NOT CURRENT, NOT PAID, & NOT PAYOFF IN PROGRESS

What is your "ltotals" table? I could probably figure it out from context, but that's not an object in the Prosper download. How do you populate that table?

[sb92075]

It is/was a two column table containing the monthly date & the count of records within LoanPerforance table for that period.

[SGriff]

It is/was a two column table containing the monthly date & the count of records within LoanPerforance table for that period.

You probably should (for fairness' sake) add the total paid off loans to the total loans to get a more accurate comparison of DQ loans to non-DQ loans.

[sb92075]

It is/was a two column table containing the monthly date & the count of records within LoanPerforance table for that period.

You probably should (for fairness' sake) add the total paid off loans to the total loans to get a more accurate comparison of DQ loans to non-DQ loans.

I think I understand what you mean, but it is rather non-trivial (impossible?) to do with pure SQL.
FWIW - In a previous post I showed the total count of loans which have been EVER paid off is about 11% of the total count of loans ever made.

[SGriff]

Which adjusts those ratios down by about 3%.

Not a dramatic difference, but a difference nonetheless.