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[Urbi_et_Orbi]

According to Lendingstats:
http://www.lendingstats.com/membershipGrowth

Prosper's membership growth for July 2008 (24,370) is the lowest number on record since January of 2007.

Membership growth has been in a free-fall since April 2008, when Prosper posted record numbers for growth (51,410)

[NewHorizon]

If it can be surmised from this presentation that the Prosper business plan calls for more than a doubling of membership each year through 2011 (pg 10, chart entitled "Prosper Users"), then I dare say Prosper is on the wrong trajectory.

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

It doesn't help much that of Prosper's 844,000 members, only 18,000 are active bidders.

[yankeefan]

If it can be surmised from this presentation that the Prosper business plan calls for more than a doubling of membership each year through 2011 (pg 10, chart entitled "Prosper Users"), then I dare say Prosper is on the wrong trajectory.

Prosper seems to have the same problem with exponential growth as the various pyramid schemes we're seeing in listings these days.  After the first few doublings, it gets "exponentially harder".

---hmmm,  maybe THAT'S why Prosper doesn't shut those listings down

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

Page 10 of that presentation is laughable.

[ira01]

It doesn't help much that of Prosper's 844,000 members, only 18,000 are active bidders.

It also probably doesn't help much that of Prosper's $164M in loans, $7.5M have officially defaulted, $10M are 4+(++++++) Late, and $5M are 1-3 months late.  That's $22.5M 1 month late or worse, or 13.7% of every dollar originated.  And that percentage is really even worse, since I didn't bother to back out the loans that originated too recently to have gone late yet.

[yankeefan]

Page 10 of that presentation is laughable.

...and the other 11 pages aren't???

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

As much as I hate to nominate my own thread for the lobby...

[Mtnchick]

Again, they just don't care. Period. They're milking this cow until it's dry then they're off to go swimming in the bay.

[Mark12547]

As much as I hate to nominate my own thread for the lobby...

Let's discuss moving this thread to the lobby over here: http://www.prospers.org/forum/for_lobby_prospers_membership_growth_drops_dramatically-t8723.0.html

Thank you!

[nonattender]

@ Urbi:

Couple of things (btw:  "free fall" is kinda cheap):

First, context.  You know how you can chart a stock's price performance on certain sites with news events marked?  You mention Prosper Days - so, clearly, you understand (I know you -really- do understand PR, but bear with me) how press coverage can have a huge effect.

Second, other datapoints:  You notice how the membership growth is dropping, but the number of active borrowers and lenders is steady,
just under the all-time peaks?  How would you explain that?  I'd submit to you that this is not some precipitous free fall decline, but that,
instead, it's the result of direct advertisement and much more targeted marketing.  If membership growth drops, but the borrower/lender actives stay roughly in line, would that suggest to you that a higher percentage of those becoming members are going on to be actives?

IE - fewer net memberships, but higher rates of participation/conversion = targeted/optimized marketing efforts at work... like, tv, radio?
(also, just for completeness, note that the referral program went dark for a couple of weeks in jun/july...)

I trust you'll let me know, good and hard, if you think any of that doesn't make sense - and I know you're qualified to recognize such.

-t

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

@ NA

I think the key observation to be made is that thousands of new registered lenders are signing up every month, yet, as you say, the number of active lenders has been relatively flat.

How should we interpret that?

[ducks]

This drop in growth could be due to the economic situation. Lending is not attractive at the moment. There's news every day on how poorly the big lenders are performing. Not many people want to be a tiny fish in a poisoned pond.

Perhaps Prosper's membership numbers will increase as economic confidence increases, assuming Prosper survives that long.

[idf]

instead, it's the result of direct advertisement and much more targeted marketing.  If membership growth drops, but the borrower/lender actives stay roughly in line, would that suggest to you that a higher percentage of those becoming members are going on to be actives?

I'd have to say I agree with this, if you can make the same sales with half the customers, you are doing fine.

[xraider]

Ducks, I suspect that the number of lenders remains steady as old lenders decide they no longer want to lend in this particular poisoned pond.  They get replaced, temporarily, as new lenders think they have Prosper wired.  As people say here, rinse, repeat.

Prosper should do some serious soul searching to determine why it's lost much of its lending base.

IMO the BIGGEST thing Prosper does wrong is fail to treat lenders as partners in this business, by failing to provide us with information about loans, lates, collections, and now "post chargeoff debt collection techniques," whatever those are and whenever they will commence.