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Author Topic: Fool Article  (Read 117200 times)

The_Cat

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #105 on: August 31, 2008, 11:37:37 am »

Here is another hypothesis:


The mass originations that were occurring this summer might have had something to do with JWitchell leaving Prosper.


Prosper realizes its origination fee immediately when the loan is originated---so all those mass originations done over the last few months might have been done solely in the name of boosting cash.   Firing Witchell has also freed up an obligation to pay him his high-flying salary... so that might have eased some pain on Prosper's immediate obligations.


Prosper is serious about not repurchasing anything evidenced from its lie to the bankruptcy court.   



They are showing all the outward signs of being cash-strapped.



The telltale sign that Prosper is in the final death throes will be when Prosper changes all of their ACH policies, such as adding a long delay when you withdraw funds, increasing the floor amount of cash you have to meet before you can initiate a withdrawal, and so on.

There is another thread where members discuss employees who have left. I can't be the only one whose thought was that the rats were abandonig ship?
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Xenon481

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #106 on: August 31, 2008, 11:38:28 am »

There is another thread where members discuss employees who have left. I can't be the only one whose thought was that the rats were abandonig ship?

Good to have you back, Cat.  Were you chasing those rats?

Tokyo Joe

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #107 on: August 31, 2008, 11:59:12 am »

I have a question...

The crux of the matter is Prosper calling us lenders after all this time, when we thought we were just debt buyers.

If that sticks, what incentive does Prosper have to put any 3rd party servicing into effect?  Can't they go BK, say there's no money to set a 3rd party up and no debts to sell a 3rd party -since we are the lenders-, and then tell the lenders "You guys are the lenders; you're on your own."  That is, if they tell us anything.

Because it looks like a doomsday "everything goes poof" scenario (which was pretty much Red Gorilla's exit strategy) just became significantly more likely.

I've grimly predicted there'd be no third-party servicing all along, since my very first post at .com  Hope I'm misunderstanding the gravity of the situation...
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112233

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #108 on: August 31, 2008, 12:05:52 pm »

if there is money to be made then Im sure there will be a 3rd party servicer.

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Tokyo Joe

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #109 on: August 31, 2008, 12:07:07 pm »

if there is money to be made then Im sure there will be a 3rd party servicer.



How much money needs to be made to be 'worth it'?  What if it's not 'worth it'?
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The_Cat

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #110 on: August 31, 2008, 12:11:05 pm »

There is another thread where members discuss employees who have left. I can't be the only one whose thought was that the rats were abandonig ship?

Good to have you back, Cat.  Were you chasing those rats?

 :) In this case just watching them jump ship.

To keep this thread on track: The comment that we were all once Prosper cheerleaders is so true. When I first joined the forums any negative comment was shouted down. By the time they pulled the forum those same proponents were Propser's biggest critics.  

In retrospect Propser will, I think, go down as one more symptom/victim of the credit crisis which peaked in 2006 where any dope with a pulse could get a loan. In that sense Prosper (and lenders) are victims of the very system they hoped to help reform.
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The_Cat

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #111 on: August 31, 2008, 12:16:40 pm »

I have a question...

The crux of the matter is Prosper calling us lenders after all this time, when we thought we were just debt buyers.

If that sticks, what incentive does Prosper have to put any 3rd party servicing into effect?  Can't they go BK, say there's no money to set a 3rd party up and no debts to sell a 3rd party -since we are the lenders-, and then tell the lenders "You guys are the lenders; you're on your own."  That is, if they tell us anything.

Because it looks like a doomsday "everything goes poof" scenario (which was pretty much Red Gorilla's exit strategy) just became significantly more likely.

I've grimly predicted there'd be no third-party servicing all along, since my very first post at .com  Hope I'm misunderstanding the gravity of the situation...

The third party could be the BK trustee. If it comes to that you can bet collection efforts go to zero and they sell off uncollected loans in mass for almost nothing and the BK trustee takes that as part of thier fee.
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onthefence

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #112 on: August 31, 2008, 12:25:18 pm »

The third party could be the BK trustee. If it comes to that you can bet collection efforts go to zero and they sell off uncollected loans in mass for almost nothing and the BK trustee takes that as part of thier fee.

If prosper collapses & that happens, then the lenders better not try to make any collection attempts or else prosper will forbid them from making any more loans or using their services.
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ira01

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #113 on: August 31, 2008, 12:26:37 pm »

I wonder if xode is TheTruthSpeaks?

Nah -- there's no mention of the fraudulent courts.  ;D
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Tokyo Joe

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #114 on: August 31, 2008, 12:41:46 pm »

I have a question...

The crux of the matter is Prosper calling us lenders after all this time, when we thought we were just debt buyers.

If that sticks, what incentive does Prosper have to put any 3rd party servicing into effect?  Can't they go BK, say there's no money to set a 3rd party up and no debts to sell a 3rd party -since we are the lenders-, and then tell the lenders "You guys are the lenders; you're on your own."  That is, if they tell us anything.

Because it looks like a doomsday "everything goes poof" scenario (which was pretty much Red Gorilla's exit strategy) just became significantly more likely.

I've grimly predicted there'd be no third-party servicing all along, since my very first post at .com  Hope I'm misunderstanding the gravity of the situation...

The third party could be the BK trustee. If it comes to that you can bet collection efforts go to zero and they sell off uncollected loans in mass for almost nothing and the BK trustee takes that as part of thier fee.


That makes sense.  They would have to reaffirm their "lender" status though, wouldn't they?
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Mark12547

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #115 on: August 31, 2008, 12:47:02 pm »

I have a question...

The crux of the matter is Prosper calling us lenders after all this time, when we thought we were just debt buyers.

If that sticks, what incentive does Prosper have to put any 3rd party servicing into effect?  Can't they go BK, say there's no money to set a 3rd party up and no debts to sell a 3rd party -since we are the lenders-, and then tell the lenders "You guys are the lenders; you're on your own."  That is, if they tell us anything.

Because it looks like a doomsday "everything goes poof" scenario (which was pretty much Red Gorilla's exit strategy) just became significantly more likely.

I've grimly predicted there'd be no third-party servicing all along, since my very first post at .com  Hope I'm misunderstanding the gravity of the situation...

The third party could be the BK trustee. If it comes to that you can bet collection efforts go to zero and they sell off uncollected loans in mass for almost nothing and the BK trustee takes that as part of thier fee.

Another interpretation would be that we aren't really loan purchasers, but rather the investors who invest in specific loans that Prosper had originated. While Prosper claims they sell us the loans, except the right of servicing, functionally speaking we don't own them at all but rather have invested in an income stream those loans generate. In that interpretation, if Prosper goes bankrupt, we would probably be placed in line with the secured loans, meaning we might get less than our loans are worth, either by an increase in servicing fees, or by each loan being sold off and us getting a cut of the proceeds, if there is enough money left over from paying those who are further up on the pecking order (e.g., taxes, wages). Or, if it is deemed we have unlicensed securities (still a real possibility in my book), we might end up with nothing.

While I had argued that at least some clauses of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act may apply to us because the bidding is a necessary but not sufficient step in the lending decision, I doubt that we would be deemed to be the lenders because a major part of the lending decision is out of our hands and we basically have no control other than the bidding, as well as years (well, a little over two years) where Prosper has been insisting that we are loan purchasers and not the lenders in the agreements they had all of us "Lenders" electronically sign.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2008, 12:48:45 pm by Mark12547 »
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christoofar215

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #116 on: August 31, 2008, 12:56:16 pm »

The best thing that could happen to us is if Virgin Finance swoops in and buys up Prosper in total and continues the site under new management.

They would also have the money and panache to open a secondary market where we can sell off our loans or buy them and take them outside Prosper Marketplace to hold them outright---which would be great.    You could build your own neighborhood storefront lending business by buying a cache of good loans and then vet your own new loans and originations through the "New Prosper" or your own lending store... so you could have P2P and use buyouts to convert them to P2B.

I'd rather have affiliate stores vetting their listings prior to them going on the auction site rather than Prosper--which doesn't vet anything prior to the listing going up.   Stores performance is also easily trackable so bad and dirty stores will die off quickly as lenders dry up.


A mixed model would work better than the anonymous P2P model of Prosper, IMO.    Storefronts have a responsibility to their communities, subject to regulation, BBB, etc.   Borrowers meet their "listing agents" in person, submit documents in person, get interviewed in person, while loan customers compete for rates through the online marketplace.  And instead of SCOREX, as part of the royalty for operating a store... the online marketplace can afford to do complete pulls of credit histories on borrowers and provide a richer detail to loan bidders.

Storefronts would also be partially responsible for collections, mailing letters, paying in-person visits to the borrower's home and then after that switch to a cornucopia of collections agencies who are graded on performance by geographic location.   The storefront owners are also then free to sue deadbeats for default judgments at will---which PMI is so reluctant to do.


After personal vetting, the storefront puts up the listing and standardized and scanned vetting documents... the borrowers PII is replaced with a control number, but the full identity of the originating storefront is disclosed along with the store owner.    The storefront owner can buy all or part of the loan by placing a starting bid at or below the interest rate the borrower lists for.

Think of it as like State Farm.    Anybody on the street can sell State Farm's policies, but the underwriting is regulated and the operations follow a Policy & Procedure manual.   A "New Prosper" model could operate like this, carry a national E&O insurance policy, look and feel like a storefront bank, but the back end remains mostly the same.


The result is better listings and more profit shared by the lenders who choose to operate storefront affiliates (premium lenders) while individual lenders also get it on the action.


Definitely beats the Group Leader idea.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2008, 12:59:57 pm by christoofar215 »
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ira01

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #117 on: August 31, 2008, 12:58:18 pm »

Or, if it is deemed we have unlicensed securities (still a real possibility in my book), we might end up with nothing.

Probably the best thing that could ever happen to lenders -- I remember the discussion about this issue when LendingClub stopped originating loans over this issue, and it seems like the legal result of selling unregistered securities was that every loan had to be repurchased, and that the corporate officers were personally liable.  While Prosper doesn't have the money to repurchase all the loans, I bet Larsen does.
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christoofar215

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #118 on: August 31, 2008, 01:01:15 pm »

Larsen probably does, but I reckon it would wipe out a huge chunk of his net worth---so he would fight it with a hit parade of top notch attorneys.

Or, if it is deemed we have unlicensed securities (still a real possibility in my book), we might end up with nothing.

Probably the best thing that could ever happen to lenders -- I remember the discussion about this issue when LendingClub stopped originating loans over this issue, and it seems like the legal result of selling unregistered securities was that every loan had to be repurchased, and that the corporate officers were personally liable.  While Prosper doesn't have the money to repurchase all the loans, I bet Larsen does.
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onthefence

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Re: Fool Article
« Reply #119 on: August 31, 2008, 01:05:42 pm »

Larsen probably does, but I reckon it would wipe out a huge chunk of his net worth---so he would fight it with a hit parade of top notch attorneys.
Doesn't he have executive liability insurance?
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