you would have run down your entire list of loans on Eric's as above (not just the currently 4+month lates) and see which, if any, had 4+month status in the past but not now. More of a pain (considering you have 818 loans), but still perhaps doable
Somehow I missed the "status history" feature of ericscc. That's nice. I knew that info was in one of the tables in Prosper's export database, but didn't know anyone was making that data visible.
It is daunting.
What am I gonna gain by doing this calculation? Doug is apparently saying we got about 1% (ie 2/3 of the 1.5% bid he mentioned in earlier blog). You doubt that they've collected 1%? That doesn't seem like a difficult number to achieve. He expressed this in a very positive light in the blog, but I don't see 1% as very positive. How about getting me 10%, or 20%, or 30% ?
Actually, as you can see from HO's spreadsheet, the JDB offer was apparentrly $232,761 for $6,367,288 of bad debt -- 3.5%. So Doug's claim that Prosper has recovered 2/3 of that would be 2.4%. That is still nothing great, but it is considerably more than 1%. And considering that this is on the worst paper (4+ and sometimes 4+++++++++months late), and considering the annecdotal reports by lenders here of receiving little or nothing on their PCOCT (post-charge off collections techniques) loans, yes, I am skeptical that Doug is telling the truth. Maybe he is, but I would like to see some evidence, not just his say so. Because Prosper has certainly proven that their say so isn't worth much.
And there's another issue here as well -- lenders' portfolios aren't fungible. In December 2007, the JDB paid 12.5% for all homeowner loans. So assuming the April 2008 "one-third" offer continued this categorization, any lender on a loan by a homeowner (and many lenders, including myself, preferred homeowners, because past JDB sales paid a premium for those -- a whopping 27%-30% in the December 2006 JDB sale, for instance) would have received 4.2%. Unless the PCOCT are recouping a proportionally greater amount of money from homeowner borrowers, which is highly doubtful IMHO, those lenders are getting screwed. And perhaps the lenders on Texas loans are reaping a windfall, given the paltry price paid for those loans in December 2007. Who gave Prosper the right to redistribute money from one group of lenders to another?