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[Fred93]

Fred has updated his blog with new charts for prosper.com late loans.

Fred also threw in a few words about the recent discovery that the Securities and Exchange Commission referenced Fred93's blog in a recent letter to Prosper.com.  Fred came dangerously close to quoting Sally Field's famous oscar award speech, but restrained himself at the last minute.

http://fred93blog.blogspot.com/2009/09/prospercom-092009-late-loan-stats.html

The meat:

[Senator]

Brilliant as usual.  Thanks Fred.

[112233]

Fred also threw in a few words about the recent discovery that the Securities and Exchange Commission referenced Fred93's blog in a recent letter to Prosper.com.  Fred came dangerously close to quoting Sally Field's famous oscar award speech, but restrained himself at the last minute

[NewHorizon]

Looks like the May and June '06 loans have finally leveled off.   

[Xenon481]

We like you, right now, we really like you.

[ira01]

As always, Fred, great work!  However, I think something you said isn't quite right:

Prosper loans created in the worst month so far, October '06, are now more than 43% bad! This number could still go higher! These are 3-year loans, but we don't know the final number of loans that have gone bad until 3 years + 4 months after origination, because loans are "charged off" when they are 4 months late. On March 1, 2010 we'll know the final numbers for loans originated in October 2006.

Since you count as "bad" loans that are at least 1-month late, don't we know the upper bound of "badness" at 37 months?  Thus, for the October '06 loans, the percentage can only go higher through November '09 -- at that point, every single loan will either be paid off or will be at least 1-month late.  For the next 3 months the number of bad loans can go down slightly (if any bad loans cure before being charged off), but can not go up.

[cubbiesnextyr]

As always, Fred, great work!  However, I think something you said isn't quite right:

Prosper loans created in the worst month so far, October '06, are now more than 43% bad! This number could still go higher! These are 3-year loans, but we don't know the final number of loans that have gone bad until 3 years + 4 months after origination, because loans are "charged off" when they are 4 months late. On March 1, 2010 we'll know the final numbers for loans originated in October 2006.

Since you count as "bad" loans that are at least 1-month late, don't we know the upper bound of "badness" at 37 months?  Thus, for the October '06 loans, the percentage can only go higher through November '09 -- at that point, every single loan will either be paid off or will be at least 1-month late.  For the next 3 months the number of bad loans can go down slightly (if any bad loans cure before being charged off), but can not go up.

Chargebacks?  A PIF loan could chargeback their last couple payments for up to 2 months afterwards, right?

[Fred93]

Since you count as "bad" loans that are at least 1-month late, don't we know the upper bound of "badness" at 37 months?  Thus, for the October '06 loans, the percentage can only go higher through November '09 -- at that point, every single loan will either be paid off or will be at least 1-month late.  For the next 3 months the number of bad loans can go down slightly (if any bad loans cure before being charged off), but can not go up.

Oh, yea.  Good point.  Shouldn't go up any more after 37th month.