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Author Topic: Prosper Form 10-Q  (Read 17925 times)

havastat

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #30 on: November 14, 2010, 11:22:59 pm »

The direct EDGAR link is here http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1416265/000141626510000490/p10q9d30d2010.htm

I'd note two things:

1. Net revenues for the quarter were about $96K (gross revenues were $361K, but $265K was deducted from the top for rebates etc.)

2. Net expenses for the quarter were about $2.5M

'Nuff said?
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ira01

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #31 on: November 15, 2010, 12:09:30 am »

The direct EDGAR link is here http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1416265/000141626510000490/p10q9d30d2010.htm

I'd note two things:

1. Net revenues for the quarter were about $96K (gross revenues were $361K, but $265K was deducted from the top for rebates etc.)

2. Net expenses for the quarter were about $2.5M

'Nuff said?

Prosper's financial situation hasn't changed since its reopening following registration -- originations are flat at a level at least an order of magnitude below the level needed for Prosper to break even.  I really can't see any way that Prosper will EVER break even -- which means that it is only a matter of time before the VC's keeping it afloat pull the plug.  I also have doubts that LC will ever reach profitability, but at least LC doesn't carry all of Prosper's baggage from its many, many mistakes -- and by originating what -- about 6 times Prosper's loan volume -- at least LC is a lot closer than Prosper.
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Fred93

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #32 on: November 15, 2010, 12:37:29 am »

Prosper's financial situation hasn't changed since its reopening following registration -- originations are flat at a level at least an order of magnitude below the level needed for Prosper to break even.  I really can't see any way that Prosper will EVER break even

Yep.  Its just amazing to watch the train wreck.

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which means that it is only a matter of time before the VC's keeping it afloat pull the plug.

Well the VCs who have invested can't pull their money back, so there's no plug they can pull at the moment.  When the cash runs out again they will be faced with the decision of whether to throw in more.  One thing they should be able to do now is replace management.  For the life of me I can't imagine why they have not taken action on that front.

Quote
I also have doubts that LC will ever reach profitability, but at least LC doesn't carry all of Prosper's baggage from its many, many mistakes -- and by originating what -- about 6 times Prosper's loan volume -- at least LC is a lot closer than Prosper.

LC has done very much better than Prosper at so many things.  You can pretty much pick any of the many mistakes that Prosper made, and LC didn't make it.  I agree tho that sustainability of the business is not yet assured.

onthefence

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #33 on: November 15, 2010, 02:20:02 am »

I'd note two things:

1. Net revenues for the quarter were about $96K (gross revenues were $361K, but $265K was deducted from the top for rebates etc.)
2. Net expenses for the quarter were about $2.5M

Given the extremely flat nature of Prosper's growth right now, it appears that their only viable play for the near future is to attempt to generate enough statistics over a year's time period to show that changes in their lending platform have now produced a profitable lending environment.  If they can do that, then they can potentially continue to get more venture capital until they can increase lending to a profitable level.

As it stands now, too many people have been bitten by their marketing hype to trust Prosper as a viable investment.
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Fred93

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #34 on: November 15, 2010, 02:48:31 am »

... it appears that their only viable play for the near future is to attempt to generate enough statistics over a year's time period to show that changes in their lending platform have now produced a profitable lending environment.  If they can do that, then they can potentially continue to get more venture capital until they can increase lending to a profitable level.

Someone at Prosper has this exact thought.  Here's their argument...
http://www.prosper.com/prm/downloads/risk_performance.pdf

You might want to grab a copy of that file, as it will likely disappear.

One interesting thing.  They've started using charts that look almost exactly like mine.  ... charts showing one curve for each month's "vintage" or cohort, with time on the horizontal axis and the default fraction on the vertical axis.

Given their endorsement of this approach, it is increasingly astonishing that they still occasionally feed some news outlet absurd low numbers for default rates.  Now you can see the absurdity of these articles without referring to my blog.  You can just look at Prosper's own vintage curves.

xraider

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #35 on: November 15, 2010, 06:30:53 am »

Yeah, Prosper's projections have been so accurate in the past, I'd rush to believe them now.

Ira, LOL about the junk debt buyer claim.  It caused me to log in to .com for the first time in a month.  I still have 20 defaults.  11 remain in collections.

This language appears on a loan that was charged off in March, 2008:

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This loan is charged-off
Because payment is more than 4 months late, this loan is charged-off. Once a loan is charged-off, it cannot become current again. Prosper will continue to collect on charge-offs until they are sold to a debt buyer. Any payment on the loan received after charge-off but before sale will be credited to lenders as a recovery. Learn more. 

The "learn more" link says:

Quote

What is a debt sale, and when can I expect one?
Prosper may, in our sole discretion attempt to sell a borrower loan to a third party debt buyer at any time. Because debt buyers buy many past-due loans at once, loans might not be sold immediately after charge-off, or may not sell at all, due to market conditions. The loan will remain with a collection agency, which will continue collection efforts until the loan is actually sold to a debt buyer. If a loan is sold in a debt sale, the entire loan sale price will be allocated to lenders. Each lender will receive their pro-rata share of the loan sale proceeds.

See the outcome of past debt sales.


The past debt sales link confirms what Ira posted and what we knew - the last debt sale was in December, 2007.

It's awfully nice that Prosper reserves the "discretion" to comply with the terms fo the contract, and even nicer that Prosper says it "may" do something that it hasn't done for three years.  Once again, no credibility.
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SLN

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #36 on: November 15, 2010, 04:57:41 pm »

The direct EDGAR link is here http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1416265/000141626510000490/p10q9d30d2010.htm

I'd note two things:

1. Net revenues for the quarter were about $96K (gross revenues were $361K, but $265K was deducted from the top for rebates etc.)

2. Net expenses for the quarter were about $2.5M

'Nuff said?


Looking at their balance sheet they only have $6.6million in cash and they burned through $7.3million in the first nine months of this year. It looks like the day of reckoning will likely come in the next six months unless they get some more VC money or issue more stock.
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yankeefan

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #37 on: November 15, 2010, 07:27:08 pm »

One fact working against better funding-  the class action suit.   I suspect the VC's would rather keep the funds in their pockets and meter them out slowly than expose them to the suit.
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Senator

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #38 on: November 15, 2010, 10:44:29 pm »

The direct EDGAR link is here http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1416265/000141626510000490/p10q9d30d2010.htm

I'd note two things:

1. Net revenues for the quarter were about $96K (gross revenues were $361K, but $265K was deducted from the top for rebates etc.)

2. Net expenses for the quarter were about $2.5M

'Nuff said?


Looking at their balance sheet they only have $6.6million in cash and they burned through $7.3million in the first nine months of this year. It looks like the day of reckoning will likely come in the next six months unless they get some more VC money or issue more stock.
Has anyone computed the date they run out of money?
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Stats as of 12/29/2010:
Total withdrawals: $3,488.87 minus (-) Total deposits: $3,600.00 = ($111.13)
Cash balance: $0
Principal value of active notes:  $0
Total active notes: 0 of 70.

Successful loans are made to persons who are on a clear path to financial stability. -Mjerryfirst May 18th, 2008.

I know that when I make my 10% those "unbelievers" will call it luck cause that will be the easiest way to excuse their mistakes. -Researchpro May 5th, 2009.

It's a great time to be poor and irresponsible in America. -PPT May 2009

Senator

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #39 on: November 15, 2010, 10:45:34 pm »

One fact working against better funding-  the class action suit.   I suspect the VC's would rather keep the funds in their pockets and meter them out slowly than expose them to the suit.
What's the current status of the class action?
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Stats as of 12/29/2010:
Total withdrawals: $3,488.87 minus (-) Total deposits: $3,600.00 = ($111.13)
Cash balance: $0
Principal value of active notes:  $0
Total active notes: 0 of 70.

Successful loans are made to persons who are on a clear path to financial stability. -Mjerryfirst May 18th, 2008.

I know that when I make my 10% those "unbelievers" will call it luck cause that will be the easiest way to excuse their mistakes. -Researchpro May 5th, 2009.

It's a great time to be poor and irresponsible in America. -PPT May 2009

xraider

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #40 on: November 16, 2010, 07:13:26 am »

I checked the appeal docket yesterday.  The parties are still briefing the appeal so it will be at least another 6-9 months on that.
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mothandrust

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Re: Prosper Form 10-Q
« Reply #41 on: November 17, 2010, 02:54:39 am »

Justice delayed.
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