zcommodore

Nice topic.

you see the fool article?

Mine was Aug 6 & i forgot all about it till i read this.

Good post.

I only had the last 13 months of data readily available. I've never bothered to go back and check daily information prior to July 2007 and I didn't have time to collect it before I responded. If you want to send me the daily loan counts for the last 2 days of the month for all the other months, I can add it to the graph.

Any special reason you didn't go back to Feb 2007 when this all started?

See my response here with a graph:
http://www.prospers.org/forum/loans_that_were_approved_the_last_days_of_each_month_are_performing_way_below-t8665.0.html;msg139952#msg139952

I'm picking the last 2 days of every month & saying PMI is churning loans out to hit a monthly goal.

They are origination more on those days than any other time of the month.You have posted nothing to disprove that.

I already knew that July 1 is a Tuesday and that that day of the week has a spike--I mention that fact in this very blog post. I was making my point. I picked a date that disagreed with your case. My point is that you can't just pick a few dates that support your point without looking at the larger picture. In this case, the larger picture is incomplete for at least another week, if not two.

July 1 is on a Tuesday.PMI always pushes weekend loans out on every Tuesday.

You are comparing apples & oranges.You can check any Tuesday & see that you are wrong.

Have you checked the numbers for July 1st? They put through 81 loans on that date. Why didn't they push those through in June?

You're comparing apples to oranges. Of the 31 days in July, 9 were weekends and a holiday so that leaves only 22 actual business days. Prosper approved 62 loans per business day in July with a low point in the middle of the month. Just because there is a small spike at the end of the month doesn't necessarily equate to "churning" to the extent you're trying to prove by picking and choosing which dates to check.

As I said before, Prosper may be pushing to make "numbers" at the end of the July but we can't say for certain until we see how things progress over the next week or two.

For the month of july 2008,PMI averaged 44 loans per day.July 30-31 there were 149 loans approved.What more proof do you need?

The fact that Prosper is "churning" loans at the end of the month has been speculated for a long time by many. I never said they weren't. All I did was check to see if there was any evidence for it or not and, it turns out, there was.

The recent spike in activity at the end of this last month is unusual but not conclusive evidence. If the number of loans drops off dramatically over the next week or two, then it will be a much bigger red flag. However if the number of loans continues to rise, then the recent activity means very little.

Oops i added wrong.It's $1,098,453(184 loans in 2 days)

Come on Z,this is churning.

http://www.prosper.com/lend/performance.aspx?af=0&esba=63&gm=0&gr=0%2c1%2c2%2c3%2c4%2c5&hw=0&iba=255&ibid=0&iwatch=0&lc=0%2c1%2c2%2c3%2c4%2c5%2c6%2c7&lq=&maxAmt=25000&maxDTI=1000000&maxFund=1&maxGrpTLC=1000000&minA=0&minAA=0&minAmt=0&minB=0&minC=0&minD=0&minDTI=0&minE=0&minFund=0&minGrpTLC=0&minHR=0&minNC=0&occ=&od=08%2f01%2f2008&oer=08%2f01%2f2008&osr=07%2f30%2f2008&plcgd=&plp=0&sf=10&sh=0&sn=&tg=0

PMI just cranked out $1 million in loans the last 2 days of this month.

So i'm right.Nice glamour title.

Duly noted. Please also note that *I* said, "sounds a bit like". :P :)

Well, yes, NewHorizon, you make a good point. However, not mentioned are a couple of other unstated reasons I've quit lending as well. Also, note that I said "mostly quit lending" as well leaving the possibility that I may start again at some point in the future.

"For the most part, those tighter standards have resulted in much better performance. Unfortunately, I've had so many bad results overall, both within my group and PRIOR TO TIGHTENING MY STANDARDS, I've mostly quit lending."

I dunno...

This sounds a bit like throwing away your bicycle because you frequently fell off of it back when you were a kid.

happy anniversary...

New rule, no responding to blog posts over three months old.