PROSPER IS NOW DEAD
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/11/26/sec-outlines-its-reasoning-for-shutting-down-p2p-lender-prosper/
The article is wrong on this critical detail:
Even though Prosper is not lending the money itself, the loans would not exist without Prosper.
According to our lending agreements,
Prosper originated the loans and more recently
Web Bank originated loans and assigned them to Prosper; in both cases, the loans are sold to us "Lenders" (actually, "Note Purchasers"). In most cases, the loans are completely legal.
The SEC C&D deals with the selling of those Notes to "Lenders" (us). If Prosper had the money and desire to do so, Prosper could still originate loans.
What I see happening now:
- Borrowers now have a legal out to stop paying their notes. Thanks to the murkiness of the Lending Agreements, it's not exactly clear how 300 lenders are going to sue a single borrower who took the transaction through an intermediary.
Actually, they don't have a legal out--their loans were legal. (Well, there may be a few disputes about some loans where Prosper may have inadvertently violated state lending laws in a few states, e.g., some states where later Prosper became aware of legal restrictions, before Prosper had Web Bank as a lending partner.)
The problems with what happens to the loans on the "back end" of the transaction (what Prosper did with the loans after they had originated) does not affect the legal requirement to repay the loans made in good faith.
I have no doubt that
some borrowers will try to stretch the SEC C&D to mean they don't have to repay, and it is possible that Prosper's ace lawyers may mess up part of the picture and lose cases there, too. But that is making use of confusion about the details of the platform, not the legal issues as such.
- Defaults will skyrocket once the Borrower population learns what has happened; which I see 3-5 months from now as Borrowers occasionally Google around and they realize what is going on.
Yes, I think you are right about that, but probably sooner than 3 to 5 months; references to SEC's Cease and Desist letter are already in Google's indexes. But as I said, it would be from misinterpreting the ramifications of SEC's C&D letter.