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[Fred93]

Fred has awakened from his winter hibernation to update his blog with new loan stats, and some discussion of the ongoing unorigination of loans.

http://fred93blog.blogspot.com/2009/05/prospercom-050109-late-loan-stats.html

Here's the meat:

[Chamatrain]

It seems to me that the paragraph explaining "unorigination" should be posted in the lobby.

Thank you.

[pioneer11]

Thanks for the update.

[Xenon481]

It seems to me that the paragraph explaining "unorigination" should be posted in the lobby.

Thank you.

+1

Prosper shouldn't be re-writing history, and especially shouldn't be doing it without explanation.

[xraider]

Thanks, Fred.  As always, your numbers are downright scary.

Your stats should be required reading for any potential lender.

I bet with the CPS loans, the numbers will be even worse.  Do you plan to track those separately?

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

Thanks, Fred.  As always, your numbers are downright scary.

Your stats should be required reading for any potential lender.

I bet with the CPS loans, the numbers will be even worse.  Do you plan to track those separately?

A potential new problem now is the re-definition of what constitutes a HR loan and the extent to which they will be co-mingled in the performance data with the HR loans of Prosper 1.0.

[Senator]

Thanks Fred.

Is this the first month where 42% appears on the Y axis?

[Fred93]

Is this the first month where 42% appears on the Y axis?

  Yea, I guess it is.

[ira01]

As I just described in this thread, Prosper has repurchased only ONE loan in the last year -- a loan that originated on October 7, 2008.  That brings the total loan repurchases (not counting the NAT loans) up to 57 (it was 56 on May 5, 2008).  Thus, clearly repurchases are NOT the explanation for the recent "unoriginations."

[bankomatic]

Loans created in March of 2006 are done now correct? They have all been paid off, defaulted or late since loans are for 3 years time?

[onthefence]

A potential new problem now is the re-definition of what constitutes a HR loan and the extent to which they will be co-mingled in the performance data with the HR loans of Prosper 1.0.

Urbi is right.  Thankfully, Prosper did not change the "Credit Score" too much.  Previously it was broken down in 40 point spreads.  It now is broken down into 20 point spreads, but the information can still be tracked.

[Fred93]

Loans created in March of 2006 are done now correct? They have all been paid off, defaulted or late since loans are for 3 years time?

Almost.

Here's my counting:
Consider a loan originated on 03/31/2006.
1st payment was due on 04/31/2006.
36th payment was due on 03/31/2009.
That 36th payment becomes 4 months late on 07/31/2009.

Current prosper policy is to charge off a loan that is 4 months late, so 07/31/2009 would be the end if nothing happened to extend the loan.  I believe some loans could need a small 37th payment, because of late payments that caused unpaid interest to accumulate, so some could theoretically finish when that payment is 4 months late, on 08/31/2009.  If a loan were held up by bankruptcy it could extend longer.

Prosper's performance web page shows that the March 2006 loans include 4 loans that are still active.  Of these, 3 loans are now "1 month late" and 1 loan is "3 months late".

[Xenon481]

Current prosper policy is to charge off a loan that is 4 months late

Not true for loans in BK.  I have a loan that has been in Chapter 13 BK (not discharged) for over 27 months with absolutely zero activity, yet it still shows as 4+ Months Late.

http://www.prosper.com/invest/listing.aspx?listingID=35390

[112233]

the last several months look great. prosper should continue to implement that business model.

[Navy-slush-fund]

and the good news is the rate of acceleration for "lates" appears to be leveling off around 40 %....