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Author Topic: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS  (Read 6328 times)

shemachinist

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Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« on: August 05, 2009, 09:43:04 am »

So, here are my numbers first:

Credit score:780-800 (Jul-2009)
Now delinquent:0
Amount delinquent:$0
Public records last 12m / 10y:0 / 0
Delinquencies in last 7y:0
Inquiries last 6m:2
First credit line:Aug-1995
Current / open credit lines:22 / 20
Total credit lines:48
Revolving credit balance:$7,814
Bankcard utilization:4%
Home ownership:Yes
Debt/Income ratio:16%
Employment status:Full-time employee
Length of status:7y 0m
Stated income:$75,000-$99,999
Occupation:Military Officer


Here is how Prosper rates me if I ask for a Loan:

Amt Req / Grade / Rank
2000 / AA / 10
3000 / AA / 10
3001 / AA / 10
3200 / AA / 10
3300 / AA / 10
3400 / A / 9
3500 / A / 9
4000 / A / 9
7500 / A / 9
9000 / A / 8
10000 / A / 8
11000 / A / 8
11.85 / A / 8
11.9 / C / 7
14 / C / 7
20 / C / 7
22 / C / 5
24 / C / 5

Interesting break down.  How come I never became a B?  Just dropped immediately from A to C.



Now, I had my husband pull his record,and let me give you the low down on why I will run SCREAMING from ever putting any more of my money into Prosper.

My dear hubby (prior to our being married) got deeply in debt, broke his ribs, couldn't work (he was way more in debt that any individual had the right to be) and filed bankruptcy in June of 2007.  Now, I have been assisting him on building up his credit, we've gotten loans together (we bought his truck), I've added him as an Authorized user on credit cards, everything we can to bring his score up.  How he now SURPASSES me, I'd like to know.

AA
Prosper score:10
Credit score:760-780 (Jul-2009)
Now delinquent:0
Amount delinquent:$0
Public records last 12m / 10y:0 / 1
Delinquencies in last 7y:4
Inquiries last 6m:1
First credit line:Sept--1999
Current / open credit lines:6 / 8
Total credit lines:22
Revolving credit balance:$3,814
Bankcard utilization:5%
Home ownership:No
Debt/Income ratio:5%
Employment status:Full-time employee
Length of status:1y 5m
Stated income:$50,000
Occupation:Contractor

When he asks for a 1K Loan, he manages to eek out an AA, and a credit scoring of 10!!!!!  And this from someone who filed for BK and had it discharged 2 years ago.



Because of what I see here..I'd never loan again on Prosper, even if my state were eventually allowed to.  Prospers collections suck, their service department sucks.  And their giving of information sucks.  And the fact that they don't check everything, that everyone isn't required to fax in their paystubs, W2s, and other income verifying information.  You need all that for a real loan.

And, as other folks have mentioned.  I can get pretty good rates swapping things to credit cards.  Hell, I currently have a credit card right now good through May that is 0% on purchases.  Damn good deal.

Stupid prosper...  Soon as this next loan of mine goes to charge off I'll be in the negatives....again. 

Feel free to move to Lobby as is appropriate.

Sonja
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mothandrust

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2009, 10:06:35 am »

Prosper had months to develop this scoring system during the Quiet Period (not originating loans, and surely not fixing collections) and THIS is what they've come up with?
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NewHorizon

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2009, 10:22:58 am »

For the convenience of onlookers (but not trying to make a point one way or another), Prosper's prospectus says this about Prosper Ratings:
Quote
Each listing will be assigned a proprietary credit rating by Prosper, referred to as the “Prosper Rating.” The Prosper Rating is a
letter that indicates the level of risk associated with a listing and corresponds to an estimated average annualized loss rate range for the
listing. There are currently seven Prosper Ratings, represented by seven letter scores, but this, as well as the loss ranges associated
with each, may change over time as the marketplace dictates. The Prosper Rating will be derived from two scores: a consumer
reporting agency score and an in-house custom score calculated using the historical performance of previous borrower loans with
similar characteristics. We will use these two scores to determine an estimated loss rate for each listing, which correlates to a Prosper
Rating. This new rating system allows Prosper to maintain consistency when assigning a rating to a listing. See “About the Platform”
for more information. The Prosper Rating and its associated estimated loss rate will be used to determine the minimum yield
percentage for each listing, which is the minimum price lender members may bid on a listing.
http://www.prosper.com/downloads/Legal/Prosper_Prospectus_2009-07-13.pdf

Also see: http://www.prosper.com/invest/how-to-invest/prosper-ratings/
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Urbi_et_Orbi

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2009, 10:24:13 am »

Prosper management has never been shy about their activist motivations.  Just check out the video of the CEO's keynote address at Prosper Days 2007.

Now that Prosper has taken control of what goes into their proprietary scoring model, why should we not expect them to build in certain mechanisms based on their particular brand of founding ideology?

As a lender, I find it muddies my ability to estimate risk, but from the founder perspective, it makes a certain amount of misguided sense.
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Investar

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2009, 10:38:09 am »


When [my dear hubby] asks for a 1K Loan, he manages to eek out an AA, and a credit scoring of 10!!!!!  And this from someone who filed for BK and had it discharged 2 years ago.

So they feel he's ready to be trusted with a little. What happens when he asks for $5k $10k or $20k?
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shemachinist

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2009, 10:59:27 am »

Well, what I find scary, is simply this.  No one who files a BK, should receive an AA credit rating, for ANY amount of money, until their BK disappears off their credit report seven years after filed.  Prosper has NO IDEA what type of person files for BK.  They don't know if the situation was a desparate attempt to get out from underneath medical bills.  Or they got underwater on their mortgage, or whatever their reason.  They also DON'T know whether this person is actually going to pay their bills, or whether they've learned to enjoy buying whatever they want, and walking away from the debts later.

I know personally that my husband will never file for BK again.  There will never be a reason to.  I am a huge saver.  I put money away.  I use 0% financing every opportunity I get and ALWAYS pay off the balance prior to the term ending.  I use 0% credit cards for purchases, and again, pay them off.  If I use balance transfer options, I pay them off before the term expires, etc.  I also know exactly how much money I can afford to pay out each money.  I put 20% of my pretax income away in a TSP (military version of civilian 401K), my husband puts into his pension, and together we put almost 1K into a savings account.  We managed last year to pay off a 8k wedding, not using credit cards or charging anything that accrued interest.  We finished the basement of our house at a cost of about 10K (to include a freakin' sump pump) that we used a combined savings and our regular incomes to pay for, again, accruing no interest on any charge card.  I use my credit card as a debit card, and make weekly payments to the card to make sure I NEVER pay interest.  I hate interest, with a passion. 

Last year I took out a loan on prosper to reduce an interest rate on a Disney Vacation Club we purchased while on honeymoon.  As soon as I found a way a few months later to move that to something else with less interest, I did, and went from the original 12% from Disney, to 9% on prosper (which isn't possible now with their ridiculous services fees, etc), and now only pay 3% and have it paid down to less than 8k (from the orginal 16K back in June of 08.  Good credit makes this happen. 

So, moral of the story, I KNOW that he'd never again file BK.  I KNOW he'd never get himself so into debt that he'd even need to consider a BK because we pay all our bills, and don't spend more than we make.  But.........PROSPER doesn't know this. 

How they can look at the information supplied by his FICO, etc, and score him a AA, for a 1K loan, with a grade 10 is ABSOLUTELY beyond me.  Because they don't know.  He could easily take the 1K and run, like everyone else, and take a very simple ding on his credit report...  Ohhh...that'd really hurt.  We've all seen how others have managed to do that, with amounts far higher than 1K.  One of my first charge offs, that eventually led to BK took us lenders for 12K...and only made one payment.  And he was an A!  How lovely.

I want COMPLETE transparency, which we all know Prosper is NOT capable of, regarding how they score people.  Because they check nothing, and give us close to next to nothing in RELIABLE information. 

And the scoring situation I just saw regarding myself, and my husband, proofs that.


Prosper management has never been shy about their activist motivations.  Just check out the video of the CEO's keynote address at Prosper Days 2007.

Now that Prosper has taken control of what goes into their proprietary scoring model, why should we not expect them to build in certain mechanisms based on their particular brand of founding ideology?

As a lender, I find it muddies my ability to estimate risk, but from the founder perspective, it makes a certain amount of misguided sense.
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shemachinist

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2009, 11:01:52 am »

I'm sure it drops, I'll have to get him to check it and see.  But an interesting note I forgot to mention.  Last year he requested a loan through Prosper, 1K, and he recieved a C.  That was only 1 year ago.  For the same requested amount of money, he's moved from a C, to an AA.

Please explain the....brilliance of this idea.  A one year improvement....and he goes from a C, to a rise in 3 credit grades to an AA. 

But again, I know it'd drop for him, because I drop off to A, when I requested more than 3K....



When [my dear hubby] asks for a 1K Loan, he manages to eek out an AA, and a credit scoring of 10!!!!!  And this from someone who filed for BK and had it discharged 2 years ago.

So they feel he's ready to be trusted with a little. What happens when he asks for $5k $10k or $20k?

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Urbi_et_Orbi

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2009, 11:43:41 am »

Well, what I find scary, is simply this.  No one who files a BK, should receive an AA credit rating, for ANY amount of money, until their BK disappears off their credit report seven years after filed. 

Doesn't your husband technically become an even greater risk after the BK falls off?

Since he can't file again during the 36 month loan period, someone could, in theory, find a lesser risk of the loan being charged off in another BK.

Clearly, we have learned that Prosper borrowers have all kinds of clever ways to avoid paying, but we can surmise that he will not be able to BK again for a while.
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ira01

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2009, 11:55:10 am »

Another absurdity in the new scoring model is that there are too-sharp breaks between credit grades for trivial changes in requested loan amount.  For example, in the OP's case, she drops from an A to a C simply by increasing her requested loan amount from $11,850 to $11,900.  Does anyone really think there is any appreciable difference in risk (much less two letter grades) for seeking an extra $50?  Another person posted that he/she dropped THREE grades (from a AA to a C) by requesting a tiny bit more money (it might have been as little as $1, IIRC, but certainly wasn't more than $100). 

Furthermore, borrowers will figure out how to use these anomalies to game the system.  A borrower in the OP's situation who planned to seek $11,900 (and let's assume that his/her risk is accurately reflected as a C) will simply seek $$11,850 instead, to artificially mislead lenders into thinking that he/she is a much better risk than in reality -- going from a C to an A will be the difference between funding or not, or a very substantial difference in ending interest rate.  Indeed, Prosper itself may assist borrowers in such gamesmanship, as it did at least once before -- when lenders figured out that borrowers seeking $25K were a significantly worse risk than those seeking $24K, Prosper programmed its website to always inform borrowers who sought $25K that their loan might not fund because lenders viewed $25K loans with suspicion, and suggesting seeking $24K instead.   >:(
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zapp05

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2009, 12:45:30 pm »

...
I know personally that my husband will never file for BK again.  There will never be a reason to. 
...
So, moral of the story, I KNOW that he'd never again file BK.  I KNOW he'd never get himself so into debt that he'd even need to consider a BK because we pay all our bills, and don't spend more than we make.
well, until you get divorced & he's back to his old habits (ya, ya... i know... you'll never get divorced...)
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shemachinist

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2009, 01:46:34 pm »

...
I know personally that my husband will never file for BK again.  There will never be a reason to. 
...
So, moral of the story, I KNOW that he'd never again file BK.  I KNOW he'd never get himself so into debt that he'd even need to consider a BK because we pay all our bills, and don't spend more than we make.
well, until you get divorced & he's back to his old habits (ya, ya... i know... you'll never get divorced...)

No, very true, very good point.  Marriages have failure rates of 50%.  It's a crap shoot.  Much the same as lending money on Prosper is.  Although, if I've been reading enough of the online posts here on .org....I believe that number is about to rise above 50% on the default rate???

I can say ...as my husband, I know he'll never default.  Once he's out of my ...."control" per say....Obviously I'd have no say.

As for higher risk waiting until 7 years after bankruptcy.  I have plenty of loans that have reached charged off status that don't mention anything about bankruptcy.  It obviously seems very easy for other borrowers on their loans....  (f*ck notes..stupid pointless name change) to walk away, with no consequences, and never file for BK.

It just seems like a very strange scoring strategy, that does nothing to protect the lenders because it truly isn't information.  And like one poster mentioned...  Obviously if I became a C on one of my loan requests for money, I'd definitely ask for less to retain that A, or AA, get the better interest rate, and better chance of funding.

Again, all pointless for me, my lovely state is protecting every possible idiot in the state (although I'm not even a Nebraska resident, so technically I should be able to get around the policy, but have ABSOLULTELY no intention on doing so) from hurting themselves by wasting their money on lending.

My buying stock when Citicorp was $1 a share is doing much better than my prosper portfolio ever has/did/will!
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NewHorizon

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2009, 02:01:57 pm »

My buying stock when Citicorp was $1 a share ...

Gutsy gal.   ;)
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Gogmagog

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2009, 10:21:56 pm »

Something else to note...  Credit scores aren't static, they change with the economic times also.  A shitty economy will move everyone down a few notches.  Either that, or it will cause the scale to contract so that more people fall into the lower ranges.  At one of the Prosper days the lady from Experian talked about it.  I don't know if it was on one of the videos. 

About the post-BK people, they are generally good credit risks(in the short term) since they no longer carry a large debt burden. :)  The score isn't a moral judgement, it is a model of a person's ability to take on, and pay back, new debt.

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Staneslav

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2009, 11:08:36 pm »

a
« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 10:29:22 am by Staneslav »
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Gogmagog

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Re: Credit Scoring Brew-ha-ha BS
« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2009, 11:29:00 pm »

If Prosper was smart, they would automatically score loans with "Credit Card Consolidation" and "Paying off debt" with a -150 penalty automatically. 
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