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[ks6328]

With Ira.  I had several loans default after more than two years of payment, and others file bankruptcy at about that time period.

+1

I've got two loans left.  Both should be paid off.  One is late on the next-to-last payment.  The other is late on the last payment.  I won't be surprised if they both default.

What has surprised me is the number of AA "I've never been late with a payment on anything and that's not going to change." who either filed bankruptcy or just plain stopped paying.  I'll never lend P2P again with any company.

Prosper is not to be trusted, but obviously neither are people in general, especially ones who are reduced to the point of seeking to borrow money from strangers.

 

[Your_Bank]

I had a loan go bad in month 33.
 

Id be happy if all my loans were current until 33 months and then they ALL defaulted.

Just wanted to lock that in.

Lock it all day long!  If I get 32 straight payments on all my loans, I would be well ahead of my 12% return target.  What is your point?

[rogerwaite]

Sorry been off the chat.  I do mean portfolio, and I too believe there is reason to be suspect.

When you say auto-bid, do you mean Prosper Portfolio plans?  Because I viewed them as suspect.

Or are you talking about your own autobid creations?  If you are referring to your own concoctions, I would suspect that your manual review helped you to eliminate some real duds.

[Your_Bank]

I Thought it would be interesting to give an update on my status.  I haven't been calculating any return details, but here is where I currently stand and how I view the experience so far.

Started $31,000 loans in May 2010 (325 notes at peak in May)
Current $19,000 outstanding
Principal paid $12,800 (also sold 125 notes at ~3% premium)
$270 charged off (3 notes), but that doesn't tell the whole story.  I have another 17 notes totaling $2,500 in the 15-90 day range I fully expect to default
$3,900 payments in excess of principal
So the way I look at it is this----->  $3,900 minus $2,500 minus $270 puts me about $1,200 in the black.
I continue to put all my notes up for sale at a 3% premium and sell 5-10 a week.  I figure if I make a little money I did ok, but not enough to compensate for the time and the risk.

Any thoughts are welcome.  I'm not sure how to calculate a return on this, but if I do some simple math of $1,200 on my initial investment I get 4%.  If I use an average balance for the year and then annualize the return I get around 8-9%. Any way I look at it I don't think I'll hit my 12% bogey.

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

What is the average age of your loans now?

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

I just re-read this thread.  I wonder if your thoughts have changed at all regarding your target ROI, your perceptions of portfolio risk, your perceptions of the feedback you received early on in the thread - and your thoughts about being able to jump in "at the right time"?

I hope things work out okay for you, but this is starting to look a bit like another repeat of what usually happens with those who come in here suffering from the "I have a better mousetrap than you old whiners" syndrome.

Finally, I do hope you stick around here on Org. We all share some of the same disappointment.

[kenL]

I Thought it would be interesting to give an update on my status.  I haven't been calculating any return details, but here is where I currently stand and how I view the experience so far.

Started $31,000 loans in May 2010 (325 notes at peak in May)
Current $19,000 outstanding
Principal paid $12,800 (also sold 125 notes at ~3% premium)
$270 charged off (3 notes), but that doesn't tell the whole story.  I have another 17 notes totaling $2,500 in the 15-90 day range I fully expect to default
$3,900 payments in excess of principal
So the way I look at it is this----->  $3,900 minus $2,500 minus $270 puts me about $1,200 in the black.
I continue to put all my notes up for sale at a 3% premium and sell 5-10 a week.  I figure if I make a little money I did ok, but not enough to compensate for the time and the risk.

Any thoughts are welcome.  I'm not sure how to calculate a return on this, but if I do some simple math of $1,200 on my initial investment I get 4%.  If I use an average balance for the year and then annualize the return I get around 8-9%. Any way I look at it I don't think I'll hit my 12% bogey.

8 or 9% seems about right.  You can also check lendstats to see the returns on the loans you funded, no trading data is available yet so this shows your returns as if you did no trading. http://lendstats.com/lendersearch.php?lender=your_bank

You're not at 12%, but 8 or 9% is not so shabby either.

[ira01]

I Thought it would be interesting to give an update on my status.  I haven't been calculating any return details, but here is where I currently stand and how I view the experience so far.

Started $31,000 loans in May 2010 (325 notes at peak in May)
Current $19,000 outstanding
Principal paid $12,800 (also sold 125 notes at ~3% premium)
$270 charged off (3 notes), but that doesn't tell the whole story.  I have another 17 notes totaling $2,500 in the 15-90 day range I fully expect to default
$3,900 payments in excess of principal
So the way I look at it is this----->  $3,900 minus $2,500 minus $270 puts me about $1,200 in the black.
I continue to put all my notes up for sale at a 3% premium and sell 5-10 a week.  I figure if I make a little money I did ok, but not enough to compensate for the time and the risk.

Any thoughts are welcome.  I'm not sure how to calculate a return on this, but if I do some simple math of $1,200 on my initial investment I get 4%.  If I use an average balance for the year and then annualize the return I get around 8-9%. Any way I look at it I don't think I'll hit my 12% bogey.

8 or 9% seems about right.  You can also check lendstats to see the returns on the loans you funded, no trading data is available yet so this shows your returns as if you did no trading. http://lendstats.com/lendersearch.php?lender=your_bank

You're not at 12%, but 8 or 9% is not so shabby either.

Maybe you missed the part about him starting to lend in May 2010 -- a mere 6 months ago.  IIRC, my ROI was about 8% 6 months after starting to lend -- perhaps even longer, actually.  It wound up around -2%.  Six months is WAY too little time to draw any meaningful conclusions. 

[Your_Bank]

What is the average age of your loans now?

All my notes are 6-9 months old.  I started lending in Feb 2010.  My first 100 notes were small bids ($25-50).  My next 200 were larger $100+.

[kenL]

It is true, there is still a long ways to go. With some bad luck that ROI can drop fast, but I'm willing to bet when all is said and done your current investments will clear at least 2 grand.

Just curious, did you buy any notes with Folio?

[JGuide]

Kenl,
  Is there a way to incorporate a calculator to a lenders stats page to make changes from sales or purchases on folio or to include Prosper rebates?

Cheers,
     JGuide

[Your_Bank]

It is true, there is still a long ways to go. With some bad luck that ROI can drop fast, but I'm willing to bet when all is said and done your current investments will clear at least 2 grand.

Just curious, did you buy any notes with Folio?

No purchases on Folio, just sales.

[Your_Bank]

I just re-read this thread.  I wonder if your thoughts have changed at all regarding your target ROI, your perceptions of portfolio risk, your perceptions of the feedback you received early on in the thread - and your thoughts about being able to jump in "at the right time"?

I hope things work out okay for you, but this is starting to look a bit like another repeat of what usually happens with those who come in here suffering from the "I have a better mousetrap than you old whiners" syndrome.

Finally, I do hope you stick around here on Org. We all share some of the same disappointment.

All good questions.  My "target" ROI has not changed from 12%, but I've lowered my expectation down to just breaking even. My perception of the portfolio risk has not changed much.  I knew this was risky business, and approached it in that way.  I think I could have done a better job picking some of the loans with the information I have now.  The feedback from this thread was 95% negative,with a few supporting comments along the way.  My intention was to invest $50,000 and take a long pause.  Based on the overwhelming feedback from here I decided to pull up short of the $50K number.

My thoughts on timing have changed a little bit.  I think the naysayers are the ones who were burned with version 1 and 2.  The timing had more to do with version 3 and the upgrade in credit rating than it did with timing the economic environment.  I think due diligence is probably the single most important factor in successful lending. 

I have been conservative when calculating my ROI.  I've always assumed that any loan 1+ day late has/will been fully written off. I've sold 1/3 of my loan portfolio at greater than 3% premium (2% after commission).  I started listing all my loans at 5% premium 3-4 months ago and dropped the premium by 1% a month.  I've been listing at 3% premium for a while now and still am able to sell notes consistently.  If I'm able to turn a profit and/or sell most my notes I will consider dabbling in the market some more.  One big consideration in my suspending my bidding is Prospers viability.

I don't ever think I talked about having a better mousetrap.  I think my premise was that the majority of the lenders were burned because of bad timing.  In fact I think my mousetrap was probably not as good as most, but I project that better timing will more than make up for it.

[Your_Bank]

I Thought it would be interesting to give an update on my status.  I haven't been calculating any return details, but here is where I currently stand and how I view the experience so far.

Started $31,000 loans in May 2010 (325 notes at peak in May)
Current $19,000 outstanding
Principal paid $12,800 (also sold 125 notes at ~3% premium)
$270 charged off (3 notes), but that doesn't tell the whole story.  I have another 17 notes totaling $2,500 in the 15-90 day range I fully expect to default
$3,900 payments in excess of principal
So the way I look at it is this----->  $3,900 minus $2,500 minus $270 puts me about $1,200 in the black.
I continue to put all my notes up for sale at a 3% premium and sell 5-10 a week.  I figure if I make a little money I did ok, but not enough to compensate for the time and the risk.

Any thoughts are welcome.  I'm not sure how to calculate a return on this, but if I do some simple math of $1,200 on my initial investment I get 4%.  If I use an average balance for the year and then annualize the return I get around 8-9%. Any way I look at it I don't think I'll hit my 12% bogey.

8 or 9% seems about right.  You can also check lendstats to see the returns on the loans you funded, no trading data is available yet so this shows your returns as if you did no trading. http://lendstats.com/lendersearch.php?lender=your_bank

You're not at 12%, but 8 or 9% is not so shabby either.

Maybe you missed the part about him starting to lend in May 2010 -- a mere 6 months ago.  IIRC, my ROI was about 8% 6 months after starting to lend -- perhaps even longer, actually.  It wound up around -2%.  Six months is WAY too little time to draw any meaningful conclusions. 

I started lending in Feb and stopped in May.  Most of the value was back-loaded.  Its hard to run the numbers when you consider I was able to sell $10,000+ of my loans with an instant profit of 2%+ (after commission).  Maybe when its all said and done I'll try to go back and figure it all out for fun.  I think there may also be a stronger desire for aged loans on the secondary market, so selling my portfolio may get a little easier as they get more on-time payment history.

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

My "target" ROI has not changed from 12%, but I've lowered my expectation down to just breaking even.

 

We all had targets at some point.