Prosper issued $178M in loans before the shutdown.
The settlement is $10M, and guessing lawyers take half, that's $5M to lenders.
Not immediately obvious how to consider the effect of $5M on $178M of lending. Recall that a large fraction (was it 45%?) of these loans defaulted.
We also have not been told how the money will be allocated among the borrowers. Will it be by amount loaned, or by amount invested (I loaned more than I invested because money got recycled), or by amount defaulted, or what?
If the metric turns out to be amount loaned, then multiply your amount loaned by 2.8%
because $5M / $178M = 2.8%
If you want to do an estimate at ROI effect, you'd have to consider the time during which you didn't have this money. Presuming we get money during 2013, that would be about 5 years.
2.8%/5 = 0.6%/year
My ROI for prosper loans for that time period was about 1.5%, so maybe I get over 2% in the end.
Whoopee.