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[Urbi_et_Orbi]

Last year, there was a significant up-tick in loan funding in March, presumably at least partially as a result of Prosper Days, renewed confidence from the new credit data made available, etc.  It also looks like the portfolio performed a bit better since then, perhaps attributable to the credit score cut-off - and the ability to finally see just how deep in the hole many of our prospective borrowers were.

I know there are still a few days left of this month, but I am getting ready to declare that there was no PD-effect following Prosper Days 2008.

http://www.lendingstats.com/loansFunded

[traveler505]

Aside from the delayed gratification factor, I much prefer Eric's chart, which is based on listing dates rather than origination dates, and thus less subject to intentional or unintentional manipulation by Prosper.

http://www.ericscc.com/index.php?page=loans_by_week

Instead of a dramatic March 2007 increase with continued growth into April, as shown on LendingStats, Eric's shows a declining rate of growth from December through March, then a March-May plateau, followed by "negative growth" in June.  This implies much less of a PD'07 effect than one would have expected, given the amount of resulting media coverage,and certainly less than LendingStats's version suggests.  It could also suggest that, rather than increasing lender confidence, the expanded credit data halted Prosper's growth by highlighting its inability to attract quality borrowers, and served as a deterrent to bidding.

Eric's chart also shows that Prosper's first year-over-year decline in loan originations occurred in February 2008, while LendingStats version will (absent a last-minute miracle) give that title to March 2008.

[Tokyo Joe]

Aside from the delayed gratification factor, I much prefer Eric's chart, which is based on listing dates rather than origination dates, and thus less subject to intentional or unintentional manipulation by Prosper.

http://www.ericscc.com/index.php?page=loans_by_week

Instead of a dramatic March 2007 increase with continued growth into April, as shown on LendingStats, Eric's shows a declining rate of growth from December through March, then a March-May plateau, followed by "negative growth" in June.  This implies much less of a PD'07 effect than one would have expected, given the amount of resulting media coverage,and certainly less than LendingStats's version suggests.  It could also suggest that, rather than increasing lender confidence, the expanded credit data halted Prosper's growth by highlighting its inability to attract quality borrowers, and served as a deterrent to bidding.

Eric's chart also shows that Prosper's first year-over-year decline in loan originations occurred in February 2008, while LendingStats version will (absent a last-minute miracle) give that title to March 2008.

February 2008 even had an extra day in it.  While I have noticed a kool-aid effect in some individual attendees, it would appear that Prosper Days really doesn't do much for the overall bottom line.  I wonder if they'll even bother with a third?

With the stock market having issues, I actually floated the idea to myself of sticking some funds back in here; I figure knowing what I do now, I'll do just fine...  But then I worry about the longterm viability thing, and the numbers don't look encouraging.  So I put away those notions and went back to finishing the dishes.

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

Ouch...I need to pull more money out...faster.

 

[aaa]

Aside from the delayed gratification factor, I much prefer Eric's chart, which is based on listing dates rather than origination dates, and thus less subject to intentional or unintentional manipulation by Prosper.

http://www.ericscc.com/index.php?page=loans_by_week

Instead of a dramatic March 2007 increase with continued growth into April, as shown on LendingStats, Eric's shows a declining rate of growth from December through March, then a March-May plateau, followed by "negative growth" in June.  This implies much less of a PD'07 effect than one would have expected, given the amount of resulting media coverage,and certainly less than LendingStats's version suggests.  It could also suggest that, rather than increasing lender confidence, the expanded credit data halted Prosper's growth by highlighting its inability to attract quality borrowers, and served as a deterrent to bidding.

Eric's chart also shows that Prosper's first year-over-year decline in loan originations occurred in February 2008, while LendingStats version will (absent a last-minute miracle) give that title to March 2008.

February 2008 even had an extra day in it.  While I have noticed a kool-aid effect in some individual attendees, it would appear that Prosper Days really doesn't do much for the overall bottom line.  I wonder if they'll even bother with a third?

With the stock market having issues, I actually floated the idea to myself of sticking some funds back in here; I figure knowing what I do now, I'll do just fine...  But then I worry about the longterm viability thing, and the numbers don't look encouraging.  So I put away those notions and went back to finishing the dishes.

That fence post xx xxxx xxx is going to hurt soon. You should just xxxxxxx quit.

[LoanChimp]

Post edited. Please remember this is the Lobby. 

[Tokyo Joe]

That fence post [somewhere north of the bellybutton] is going to hurt soon. You should just [emphatically] quit.

I am not on any fence post, don't be a [man of simple thought].  I am not likely to put any more funds into Prosper in this lifetime, and I've made that abundantly clear all along.  Having a momentary notion while washing dishes, and dismissing it immediately is hardly "fence sitting".

Getting hostile with me because I stopped sticking up for you bama?  What can I say?  Even I get tired of sockpuppets and personal dramas and hillbilly racism and attentionwhoring and rumor mongering and impersonation and bitching and grossouts and self pity...  But we can take this inside, if you must.

[bamalucky]

This above isnt my post.LC as mod can probably see the IP & determine who it was.

[Tokyo Joe]

Well... anyone want to take credit?

[Mark12547]

This above isnt my post.LC as mod can probably see the IP & determine who it was.

No. Those of us who have been appointed to moderate the public forums cannot see IP addresses of anyone but ourselves.

[Tokyo Joe]

I'm not big on the "It's posted under my name, with my ID, but I swear to God, I didn't post it" excuse.  pproanalyst, AMERICAN_DREAMERS, and BFS have all tried that excuse before.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt (yet again) bama, but I'm also adding a note to the long list of notes beside your name.

[bamalucky]

Not a problem..Ferrix dropped into IRC with a laugh..Bastards even changed the email to ask for a new password to ykculamab@gmail.com

my user name backward..please leave this email addy public  so they can get lots of span

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

So, according to LendingStats, we ended March 2008 with approximately $7.3 Million in funded loans for the month (Ericscc tags it below $6 Million, based on a slightly different metodology).  While it is certainly a pretty respectable number by Prosper standards, it is well below the level of funding for March 2007.

http://www.lendingstats.com/loansFunded

We have almost doubled the number of registered lenders since March 2007 - and there were several thousand more active lenders during March 2008 than in March 2007.

http://www.lendingstats.com/membershipGrowth

A straight year-to-year decline in funding for the month, at this stage in Prosper's life, suggests a certain level of stagnation.

Also, the Ericscc.com data methodology (which may be a more accurate way to present the data),suggests that March 2008 brough us the lowest level of funding since December 2006.

http://www.ericscc.com/index.php?page=loans_by_week

Equally disturbing, the overall portfolio is aging worse than even some of the most most cynical among us predicted (even though I think, Alan, at some point, predicted a 50% default rate within certain credit categories), with the oldest loans now uniformly approaching the 30% delinquency mark.

As badly as I want this to work, all indicators at this point, IMO, are pointing to a total failure of the platform.  Based on what we have seen from Prosper during these past two years, I don't think it much of a stretch to suggest that the aftermath of such an implosion would likely become a very messy affair for lenders.

The question is not IF, but WHEN.

[ira01]

(Ericscc tags it below $6 Million, based on a slightly different metodology). 

* * *
Also, the Ericscc.com data methodology (which may be a more accurate way to present the data),suggests that March 2008 brough us the lowest level of funding since December 2006.

Eric's methodology means that his March numbers will continue to increase for the next 2.5 weeks or so, so you can't draw conclusions yet (he bases his numbers on listing start date, so a 10 day listing and a week of PFV means some loans won't be included for 17 days).

ETA:  That said, the numbers are still pitiful for Prosper.  To have a monthly year-over-year DECREASE in originations when your CEO is on record as saying that a 400-500% INCREASE is required for Prosper to break even, must have the VC's crying in their espressos.  And this month's year-over-year decrease is likely to be even worse, since last April was prosper's best month ever. 

[Mtnchick]

So, according to LendingStats, we ended March 2008 with approximately $7.3 Million in funded loans for the month (Ericscc tags it below $6 Million, based on a slightly different metodology).  While it is certainly a pretty respectable number by Prosper standards, it is well below the level of funding for March 2007.

http://www.lendingstats.com/loansFunded

We have almost doubled the number of registered lenders since March 2007 - and there were several thousand more active lenders during March 2008 than in March 2007.

http://www.lendingstats.com/membershipGrowth

A straight year-to-year decline in funding for the month, at this stage in Prosper's life, suggests a certain level of stagnation.

Also, the Ericscc.com data methodology (which may be a more accurate way to present the data),suggests that March 2008 brough us the lowest level of funding since December 2006.

http://www.ericscc.com/index.php?page=loans_by_week

Equally disturbing, the overall portfolio is aging worse than even some of the most most cynical among us predicted (even though I think, Alan, at some point, predicted a 50% default rate within certain credit categories), with the oldest loans now uniformly approaching the 30% delinquency mark.

As badly as I want this to work, all indicators at this point, IMO, are pointing to a total failure of the platform.  Based on what we have seen from Prosper during these past two years, I don't think it much of a stretch to suggest that the aftermath of such an implosion would likely become a very messy affair for lenders.

The question is not IF, but WHEN.

Thanks for doing that analysis.

It's sad that I just get giddy when I see one of my loans payoff early. It was such a promising concept, but obviously was not thought completely through.