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[Fred93]

Updated the blog tonite with a new chart, also copied here...

[Loan_shark_74]

Can you break that down by credit grade?

[Xenon481]

December Lates are starting their uptick.

[zcommodore]

Can you break that down by credit grade?

I was doing that for awhile and recently stopped.  I stopped because it was a lot of work and I'm not as interested in Prosper as I once was.  If I really got a fire built under me, I could write a screen scraper and related tools to do the job but it sounds too much like work and I have other interests.  I had some ideas one time to do all this but I just never actually did it.  The fact that Prosper keeps changing the data didn't help either.  When they changed all those loans in the new agency test from defaulted to repurchased was pretty-much the last straw for me.  It's just too much work to go through eric's site to find all the loans Prosper has removed from the data and try to add it back in so I just gave up.

You can see how things looked on the statistics wiki page up to last January or so for the first year of Prosper's existance.  If you look at those numbers, you will see the data is very, very noisy early on and I doubt it has changed much since then.  If someone wanted to replicate those, it's not really complicated but it is very time consuming.  Someday, I might get inspired and create that screen scraper but for now, I just don't feel like it.  I've got better things to do.

[RateLadder_com]

Can you break that down by credit grade?

Vintage Curves roll each cohort together, but seperate the credit grades...

[Cheerful_Lender]

Am I reading this graph right that 60% of 451 day old HR loans are/were late?

[onthefence]

Am I reading this graph right that 60% of 451 day old HR loans are/were late?

Yes.

[misssalaska2000]

Wow.  I hate to say it, but maybe it's worth cutting HRs out of the picture.   

[Staneslav]

a

[Mtnchick]

Damn, AA's are approaching/at 20% late in under 2 years.

Not many will make money at prosper...

And a lot will lose......

[Nora_Lenderbee]

Am I reading this graph right that 60% of 451 day old HR loans are/were late?

Yes.

Holy cheese. I knew it was bad, but not that bad.

[RateLadder_com]

Am I reading this graph right that 60% of 451 day old HR loans are/were late?

Yes.

Yes if you meant in terms of dollars and not # of loans.  On a # of loans basis it is slightly less bad...  (larger loans carry a higher risk of default)

Be careful about putting too much weight behind the very ends of the curves... the lines end with only 250 loans in the basket.  I include the ends (1000 to 250 loans) of the curves in order to watch the long tail...

[bamalucky]

RL,is the interest rate lent to Hr's slightly "less bad" than enough to cover defaults?

[Staneslav]

a

[RateLadder_com]

RL,is the interest rate lent to Hr's slightly "less bad" than enough to cover defaults?

no not on average.  hence the "less bad" moniker. 

just clarifying the graph, thanks for caring.