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[cowdog]

10% of all active money lent just hit 4+ late today.

    4+ months late     $9,747,280     10.01%

Not counting the 7% that is from late to 3+ late.

http://www.prosper.com/lend/performance.aspx

LS shows:

26006 total loans: $163,121,650.08

4167 are 1 mo late or worse: $25,232,001

1 mo+ late will most likely default, as we have seen (and more are in the pipeline), so right now it is fair to say defaults are:

15.47% by dollar amount, 16.02% by number of loans.

 

[Xenon481]

10% of all active money lent just hit 4+ late today.

    4+ months late     $9,747,280     10.01%

Not counting the 7% that is from late to 3+ late.

http://www.prosper.com/lend/performance.aspx

LS shows:

26006 total loans: $163,121,650.08

4167 are 1 mo late or worse: $25,232,001

1 mo+ late will most likely default, as we have seen (and more are in the pipeline), so right now it is fair to say defaults are:

15.47% by dollar amount, 16.02% by number of loans.

 

You also need to take into account that 2744 out of those 26006 loans (over 10%!) haven't even had a chance to go 1 month late yet.

[cowdog]

Yes, a 16% default rate is being very generous to Prosper; actual defaults will be much higher.

[loanauctions]

...They are just waiting to lock the doors, take a long vacation and maybe open up another company or two after the stink from this one has worn off. ...

yep, maybe even get some kind of entrepenueral (sp?) award, maybe an award for following in the footsteps of the great American Mortgage Industry. That's it, they'll get an award for converting pig shit into blue ribbon pie, most pies sold award., "the American way".

When they go down it will be very fast 3-4 weeks, I say the announcement comes sometime before March 2009 and the scapegoat will be the weak American economy.

[bamalucky]

When they go down it will be very fast 3-4 weeks

I don't.I just think one day you will log on try try to transfer out & the site will be unavailable.

[cowdog]

When they go down it will be very fast 3-4 weeks

I don't.I just think one day you will log on try try to transfer out & the site will be unavailable.

Oh, you mean like:

"Right now the (Red Gorilla) system is offline, all the employees were let go, and there's no money in the bank," said chief executive John Witchel.

[Mark12547]

More like a 404 when trying to bring up a page from that site.

[112233]

When they go down it will be very fast 3-4 weeks

I don't.I just think one day you will log on try try to transfer out & the site will be unavailable.

look how quiet they were about the nuking the old forums

[Urbi_et_Orbi]

When they go down it will be very fast 3-4 weeks

I don't.I just think one day you will log on try try to transfer out & the site will be unavailable.

look how quiet they were about the nuking the old forums

Perhaps Prosper will give a heads-up about site closure to the same people who received advance notice of the forum nuking.

[112233]

When they go down it will be very fast 3-4 weeks

I don't.I just think one day you will log on try try to transfer out & the site will be unavailable.

look how quiet they were about the nuking the old forums

Perhaps Prosper will give a heads-up about site closure to the same people who received advance notice of the forum nuking.

well, if I had advance notice I probably would stop bidding right away to begin with

[loanauctions]

I think you guys are right about without warning 1 day and the site is down just one or two sentences on  a webpage. When I say 3-4 weeks I mean lay off employees, shut down site, make public statements, have the criminal defense lawyers answereing all the questions. Hell rethinking this they can do all that in 1-3 days.
You can bet PMI execs will be **very** hard to find, they probably won't even be in the country. I've heard Switzerland does not have an extradiction treaty w/ the U.S.
m

[nonattender]

I think you guys are right about without warning 1 day and the site is down just one or two sentences on  a webpage. When I say 3-4 weeks I mean lay off employees, shut down site, make public statements, have the criminal defense lawyers answereing all the questions. Hell rethinking this they can do all that in 1-3 days.
You can bet PMI execs will be **very** hard to find, they probably won't even be in the country. I've heard Switzerland does not have an extradiction treaty w/ the U.S.
m

Yeah, I'm sure they're busy booking tickets to abscond with all of the money that they've made by not breaking even yet on initial funding.

Nice call.  I'm in awe of your understanding of the dynamics of their business model - and glad you spared a moment to share it with us all.

-t

[112233]

I think you guys are right about without warning 1 day and the site is down just one or two sentences on  a webpage. When I say 3-4 weeks I mean lay off employees, shut down site, make public statements, have the criminal defense lawyers answereing all the questions. Hell rethinking this they can do all that in 1-3 days.
You can bet PMI execs will be **very** hard to find, they probably won't even be in the country. I've heard Switzerland does not have an extradiction treaty w/ the U.S.
m

the mechanics of a shutdown according to John Witchel:

The Night Before
   Tell Your Wife
Day One
   Tell all your employees to their faces
   Call your major investors & your board
   Call your major customers
   Call your major suppliers
Day Two
   Hide
Days Three – Seven
   Questions and Answers
Day Eight – One Hundred and Eighty
   Deal with an astonishing amount of BS

http://www.whiteandlee.com/soup01_4/JW.ppt

[NewHorizon]

... and the last page of that powerpoint presentation sayeth:

Bankruptcy Isn't So Bad.

[onthefence]

the mechanics of a shutdown according to John Witchel:

The Night Before
   Tell Your Wife
Day One
   Tell all your employees to their faces
   Call your major investors & your board
   Call your major customers
   Call your major suppliers
Day Two
   Hide
Days Three – Seven
   Questions and Answers
Day Eight – One Hundred and Eighty
   Deal with an astonishing amount of BS

http://www.whiteandlee.com/soup01_4/JW.ppt

He can skip that step.  He's already run them off.