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Author Topic: Peak Prosper Theory  (Read 19909 times)

bamalucky

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #45 on: August 05, 2008, 06:24:04 pm »

We lenders aren't customers.He could take out a page in Weekly World News to notify the customers
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CleanRivers

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #46 on: August 06, 2008, 12:13:21 pm »

the mechanics of a shutdown according to John Witchel:
Quote
The Night Before
   Tell Your Wife
Day One
   Tell all your employees to their faces
   Call your major investors & your board
   Call your major customers
   Call your major suppliers
Day Two
   Hide
Days Three – Seven
   Questions and Answers
Day Eight – One Hundred and Eighty
   Deal with an astonishing amount of BS

http://www.whiteandlee.com/soup01_4/JW.ppt
He can skip that step.  He's already run them off.

I disagree, his customers are still coming in to get lenders money.
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loanauctions

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #47 on: August 06, 2008, 05:50:36 pm »

I think you guys are right about without warning 1 day and the site is down just one or two sentences on  a webpage. When I say 3-4 weeks I mean lay off employees, shut down site, make public statements, have the criminal defense lawyers answereing all the questions. Hell rethinking this they can do all that in 1-3 days.
You can bet PMI execs will be **very** hard to find, they probably won't even be in the country. I've heard Switzerland does not have an extradiction treaty w/ the U.S.
m

Yeah, I'm sure they're busy booking tickets to abscond with all of the money that they've made by not breaking even yet on initial funding.

Nice call.  I'm in awe of your understanding of the dynamics of their business model - and glad you spared a moment to share it with us all.

-t
  I am looking at character not business model, frauds are not ethical some unethical people steal. So are you suggesting PMI execs do not manage the cash flow?
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Mtnchick

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #48 on: August 06, 2008, 06:05:15 pm »

I think you guys are right about without warning 1 day and the site is down just one or two sentences on  a webpage. When I say 3-4 weeks I mean lay off employees, shut down site, make public statements, have the criminal defense lawyers answereing all the questions. Hell rethinking this they can do all that in 1-3 days.
You can bet PMI execs will be **very** hard to find, they probably won't even be in the country. I've heard Switzerland does not have an extradiction treaty w/ the U.S.
m

Yeah, I'm sure they're busy booking tickets to abscond with all of the money that they've made by not breaking even yet on initial funding.

Nice call.  I'm in awe of your understanding of the dynamics of their business model - and glad you spared a moment to share it with us all.

-t
  I am looking at character not business model, frauds are not ethical some unethical people steal. So are you suggesting PMI execs do not manage the cash flow?

Sure sounds that's like what he's suggesting. Perhaps there's a wo/man behind a curtain somewhere?
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Urbi_et_Orbi

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #49 on: August 06, 2008, 08:55:29 pm »

Like we say about borrowers...past actions are the best indicators of future behavior.
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mothandrust

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #50 on: August 08, 2008, 03:01:01 am »

If we take the Hubbert's peak theory and make it analogous to Prosper, what we should be counting are not borrowers (consumers:cars and factories and utilities) or endorsers (advertisers/salespeople like gas station attendants) but lenders (who supply the product).

Hubbert says that when half the amount of oil produced has been produced, production has peaked and there is a precipitous, bell-shaped curve.

How can we measure this peak for Prosper?  Do, for example, the number of current lenders outnumber ex-lenders? 

Should we look at loans originated?  Amounts bid?  Those graphs seem to suggest a plateau but not a dropoff.  (Yet?)
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regeneration

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #51 on: August 09, 2008, 11:57:38 am »

I think you guys are right about without warning 1 day and the site is down just one or two sentences on  a webpage. When I say 3-4 weeks I mean lay off employees, shut down site, make public statements, have the criminal defense lawyers answereing all the questions. Hell rethinking this they can do all that in 1-3 days.
You can bet PMI execs will be **very** hard to find, they probably won't even be in the country. I've heard Switzerland does not have an extradiction treaty w/ the U.S.
m

the mechanics of a shutdown according to John Witchel:
Quote
The Night Before
   Tell Your Wife
Day One
   Tell all your employees to their faces
   Call your major investors & your board
   Call your major customers
   Call your major suppliers
Day Two
   Hide

Days Three – Seven
   Questions and Answers
Day Eight – One Hundred and Eighty
   Deal with an astonishing amount of BS

http://www.whiteandlee.com/soup01_4/JW.ppt


It seems like they do an awful lot of that already.
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Loan_shark_74

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #52 on: August 10, 2008, 12:31:28 pm »

There is a big drop off in lending funds. Right now, only 120 listings out of 2142 are 50% funded or better.
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Mtnchick

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #53 on: August 10, 2008, 12:34:06 pm »

I'm sure it's just a bug somewhere.  8)
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God-Father

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #54 on: August 10, 2008, 12:59:50 pm »

There is a big drop off in lending funds. Right now, only 120 listings out of 2142 are 50% funded or better.
ABERDEEN has not bid any this month.
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onthefence

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #55 on: August 10, 2008, 08:45:09 pm »

ABERDEEN has not bid any this month.
I see a couple of bids.
http://www.lendingstats.com/lenders/Aberdeen/bids
Just not as much as usual.  Hmmm... 8 months in.  I am guessing that he has now been hit with the infamous learning curve.
Eric'sCC Estimated ROI 9.64%, but average loan age is 104 days.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2008, 08:47:44 pm by onthefence »
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Mark12547

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #56 on: August 10, 2008, 10:43:33 pm »

There is a big drop off in lending funds. Right now, only 120 listings out of 2142 are 50% funded or better.

That drop surprises me--a small drop would be within my expectation: many people take vacations in August (peak tourist month for family destinations because kids are out of school and the weather doesn't threaten travel) so some lenders are away on vacation with their families and don't have access to a PC to bid, others are away on vacation and don't have discretionary income to gamble bid on listings. But the dip is far more than I would have expected from just the August vacation effect.

I don't think our little corner of the Internet cyberspace is enough to scare off that many fools lenders.  ;)
« Last Edit: August 10, 2008, 10:46:38 pm by Mark12547 »
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Mtnchick

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #57 on: August 11, 2008, 08:17:36 am »

I don't think our little corner of the Internet cyberspace is enough to scare off that many fools lenders.  ;)

Silly - just ask P------r (and NA) - .org is their downfall, not management/collection/etc.  8)
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"Once again, we note that your threats are hollow and you come across like a sad, lonely blowhard.

I doubt anyone here gives a shit about you.  We pretty much all know that you are a vile and unethical parasite of a human being with an abnormal craving for attention."

Loan_shark_74

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Re: Peak Prosper Theory
« Reply #58 on: August 11, 2008, 10:17:13 am »

There is a big drop off in lending funds. Right now, only 120 listings out of 2142 are 50% funded or better.
ABERDEEN has not bid any this month.
Anton has not bid for over a month. He used to bid regularly.


Update: He just bid here; http://www.prosper.com/lend/listing.aspx?listingID=378391
Interesting :ninja:
« Last Edit: August 11, 2008, 12:16:23 pm by Loan_shark_74 »
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