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Author Topic: Fred93 blog - backloaded months  (Read 22606 times)

Fred93

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Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« on: March 31, 2010, 01:19:27 pm »
Fred has updated his blog again, with a look at Prosper's backloaded months.

http://fred93blog.blogspot.com/2010/03/prospercom-backloaded-months.html

The meat:  An average of five months Nov'09, Dec'09, Jan'10, Feb'10, Mar'10, with weekends and holidays squeezed out of each month, and the days then slid so they align at the end of the month.



Nominate for lobby.
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ira01

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2010, 01:43:35 pm »
As always, excellent work Fred.  Nominate for Lobby.
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Staneslav

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2010, 01:44:14 pm »
a
« Last Edit: December 04, 2017, 11:58:08 am by Staneslav »
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ira01

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2010, 01:48:29 pm »
Quote from: Staneslav on March 31, 2010, 01:44:14 pm
It doesn't get them any more money than they would have had otherwise, and simply makes them look desperate, and incompetent.

So what else is new?
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bankomatic

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2010, 01:49:57 pm »
This has been brought up before as to why the loan originations are always so back loaded. I'd love to know an answer as to why this is happening.
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bamalucky

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2010, 02:37:41 pm »
Quote
It really doesn't change the number of loans they will originate overall, or even monthly, as it averages out

Oh but it very well could because IMO these loans aren't under the same scrutiny of possible fraud etc.  I can safely guess that these loans aren't getting the same verification later in a month as one earlier.
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cowdog

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2010, 03:01:16 pm »
Quote from: bamalucky on March 31, 2010, 02:37:41 pm
Quote
It really doesn't change the number of loans they will originate overall, or even monthly, as it averages out

Oh but it very well could because IMO these loans aren't under the same scrutiny of possible fraud etc.  I can safely guess that these loans aren't getting the same verification later in a month as one earlier.

I'm sure Prosper has a perfectly reasonable explanation for this as well.

It only makes sense that they want to clear the books at the end of each month, and as the end of the month approaches, they don't have the time or resources to analyze and verify the loans to the same high standards as those at the start of the month. We all know their crack fraud team is on top of all this in any case.

What would be interesting is to see the default rates of loans that originate in the beginning of months compared to defaults of later originations. That data is probably severely lacking in sample size at this point though.
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Staneslav

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2010, 03:11:33 pm »
a
« Last Edit: December 04, 2017, 11:57:31 am by Staneslav »
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God-Father

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2010, 03:21:01 pm »
If I remeber correctly, 10% of nothing is nothing.
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tekiegreg

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2010, 04:11:42 pm »
What I'd like to do is find a day by day plot for some of these months, extrapolate a moving average as well as standard deviation to get an idea of how bad that end of month bubble is, anyone out there have a day by day plot for some of these months in a table form that I could pound on in Excel?
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kenL

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2010, 05:31:16 pm »
Maybe its just their monthly cycle of work. Maybe at the beginning of the month they concentrate on other things and the end of the month on this. There are a lot of monthly cycles in this world. Unless you actually work there and know what's going on you are really just jumping to conclusions. There are plenty of other things to pick on besides this. I don't see the point in trying to boost originations, not at these levels. If they are trying to reach a milestone, like 10million for the first time or maintain the appearence of growth, then there might be a bone to pick. But at these levels, who cares. Does anyone care whether they do 1.5 million or 2.25 million this month?
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God-Father

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2010, 05:43:22 pm »
Quote from: kenL on March 31, 2010, 05:31:16 pm
Does anyone care whether they do 1.5 million or 2.25 million this month?

VCs might   ;)
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bamalucky

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2010, 05:57:29 pm »
Quote
Maybe its just their monthly cycle of work.

sorry bud..That's not how loan originations work..

Prosper doesn't get paid till the loan is approved.
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kenL

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2010, 06:02:55 pm »
Quote from: bamalucky on March 31, 2010, 05:57:29 pm
Quote
Maybe its just their monthly cycle of work.
sorry bud..That's not how loan originations work..
Prosper doesn't get paid till the loan is approved.
I don´t get your point.
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bamalucky

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Re: Fred93 blog - backloaded months
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2010, 06:06:37 pm »
Quote from: kenL on March 31, 2010, 06:02:55 pm
Quote from: bamalucky on March 31, 2010, 05:57:29 pm
Quote
Maybe its just their monthly cycle of work.
sorry bud..That's not how loan originations work..
Prosper doesn't get paid till the loan is approved.
I don´t get your point.


Verification & origination should be fluid
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