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Author Topic: Greetings  (Read 63217 times)

Your_Bank

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Greetings
« on: May 02, 2010, 07:07:52 pm »

I would like to introduce myself to the Prosper community.  I joined prosper in Jan 2010 after reading an article in cnnmoney.com.  I’ve spent my career in banker splitting my time between Finance and Treasury.

I have been in the midst of the current liquidity / capital crunch managing capital and liquidity for a top 10 US bank, and I understand the banking strategies over the last 12 months have been to shrink balance sheets and preserve capital. (that’s my job).  I saw the squeeze being put on the ordinary consumer and that led me to believe that the time is perfect for P2P lending.

I started the first 2 months building my loan portfolio up to 200+ loans, consisting mainly of $25 loans as I tried to gauge all the possible lending strategies.  I also took out a small loan ($3,000) to test the other side of the business. (funded at 6.75% rate to me)

In early April I made the decision to ramp up my portfolio to $50,000+.  I’m a little over half way to building my portfolio, where I will take another assessment of things and decide whether or not to increase my holdings further.

I’m looking for a forum to share information, strategies, ideas, pitfalls, experiences, knowledge….etc..  I don’t have much credit risk experience, but I have a solid background in banking, interest rate, finance, bonds, stocks, futures, and commodities. I understand that having a network in anything that you do is always helpful, so that is why I am posting here.

I offer whatever expertise I have in finance / banking to the community in exchange for honest opinions and feedback. and good dialog.

I look forward to increasing returns for all in the Prosper community.

Happy lending,
Your_Bank (Steve)
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pioneer11

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2010, 07:12:11 pm »

Welcome and start reading.  Lots of good stuff on Prosper here.  I suggest you slow down on bidding until you do much more research.  Also, take a look at the stats on http://www.ericscc.com.  There are some real eye openers there.

Rotsa Ruck.
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God-Father

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2010, 07:13:33 pm »

Steve

What approximate ROI are you hoping for?
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pioneer11

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2010, 07:20:04 pm »

Holy shit, he's already got 2 lates on a 20 day average loan age.
http://www.ericscc.com/lenders/Your_Bank
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Your_Bank

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2010, 07:25:41 pm »

Steve

What approximate ROI are you hoping for?

I'm targeting 12%
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Urbi_et_Orbi

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2010, 07:27:02 pm »

Welcome.  Now that you have built up a selection of loans, it's probably wise to let them have some time to age and test your lending theories before you succumb to the temptation to keep pumping money into the platform.  
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Your_Bank

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2010, 07:31:01 pm »

Holy shit, he's already got 2 lates on a 20 day average loan age.
http://www.ericscc.com/lenders/Your_Bank

I'm very well aware of that.  I was introduced to that site early on.  The 2 lates is on ~150-170 loans, or ~1.5% late in the first month (or 2).  The research I have seen suggests a linear relationship between months held and (PD) probability of default.  i.e.  The highest risk of default is in the first few months.

thoughts.....
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Your_Bank

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2010, 07:40:31 pm »

Welcome and start reading.  Lots of good stuff on Prosper here.  I suggest you slow down on bidding until you do much more research.  Also, take a look at the stats on http://www.ericscc.com.  There are some real eye openers there.

Rotsa Ruck.

Thanks for the thoughts.  The stats I see on ericscc are mostly historical (before the quite period) and at a time when sub-prime was the popular loan.  Things have changed in the financial world and lending enviornment where people with very good credit can not get a loan.  I've done countless hours of research already, and feel relatively confident with my strategy.  I would say my strategy is not completely set, so your words are well taken.  I appreciate hearing the words of caution, cause this is a risky business.

Kind Regards
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pioneer11

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2010, 07:44:41 pm »

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Your_Bank

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2010, 08:04:07 pm »

Study this too:
http://fred93blog.blogspot.com/

Thanks for the extra info.  I saw that today.  I understand this is a very risky business. It always is when you deal with consumer credit risk.  That's why the rate on my portfolio is 28%+.  I'm not blind to those risks.  I am a student of historical data as I used to trade bonds on the floor of the CBOT (before CME bought them).

Having said all that, I believe we are in very unusual times right now.  Back when most of these loans were being originated (2006-2008) anyone with a heartbeat could get a loan (heck, sometimes I would have questioned whether or not you needed one).  Capital was flowing and liquidity was ample.  Fast-forward a couple years and things have changed.  Capital is scarce, liquidity is cheap for those with EXCELLENT credit, but very expensive (if not unavailable) for everyone else.  That's what attracted me to Prosper.

I know there are many lenders on here who got burned by lending on Prosper, and I can feel your pain. Ive lost tens of thousands on bad bets before.  My questions is this - Is there anyone on here still lending actively on Prosper?  If so, what is your portfolio size?  Is the general concensus that Prosper is a losing bet?

Thanks for your thoughts  
« Last Edit: May 02, 2010, 08:12:37 pm by Your_Bank »
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xraider

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2010, 08:07:30 pm »

Hi Steve, and welcome.

You will find mostly FORMER lenders here, since we didn't receive the returns we wanted and because many of us feel that Prosper hasn't acted with the lenders' interests in mind.

I'd be careful, because Prosper has a history of changing the rules midstream, and of favoring borrowers over lenders.  You cannot expect Prosper to take ANY steps to collect on your late loans, and you're essentially relying on the morality of your borrowers, who have very few consequences if they fail to repay.  IIRC, Prosper will, when it feels like it, report to ONE of the credit bureaus.  If challenged, it has been reported that Prosper will back down.  Thus, there is little motivation to repay loans.

One early default will wipe out LOTS of repaid loans -- particularly if the loans repay early.  If I'm LUCKY, I'll net 2% on my portfolio after three years.  That's 2% total, not 2% per year.  My Experian predicted ROI was more than 14%.  

I stopped lending in large part because I had the audacity to call the collection agency to see what I could propose to Prosper to make collections more effective.  In return, Prosper changed the Lenders' Registration Agreement to forbid lenders from contacting collection agencies, and didn't tell people about the changes in the LRA.  People here pointed it out.  I then posted on Prosper's own boards (which it shut down within a month, but which are archived on www.prosperreport.com) that the changes in the LRA weren't effective because Prosper didn't provide notice of them.  The other reason I stopped lending was because, at essentially the same time, Prosper began permitting borrowers to take out second loans while they still had an active loan.  I felt that increased the risk to lenders and, in fact, all but one of my borrowers who took out second loans while having an active first went on to default on both.  

Prosper also retroactively changed the terms of service so that it no longer had to sell defaulted loans to junk debt buyers, but instead is "working" the defaulted loans themselves, with very little success.  In other words, Prosper does whatever it wants to, and most of us have so little at risk that it's not worth suing over each of these violations.  That's what Prosper is counting on, I think.

Prosper is currently being sued in a class action for SEC violations.

My husband excoriated me for making unsecured loans to strangers over the internet, and rightly so.  

As Ira01 says, caveat lender.  
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pioneer11

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2010, 08:23:10 pm »

Study this too:
http://fred93blog.blogspot.com/

Thanks for the extra info.  I saw that today.  I understand this is a very risky business. It always is when you deal with consumer credit risk.  That's why the rate on my portfolio is 28%+.  I'm not blind to those risks.  I am a student of historical data as I used to trade bonds on the floor of the CBOT (before CME bought them).

Having said all that, I believe we are in very unusual times right now.  Back when most of these loans were being originated (2006-2008) anyone with a heartbeat could get a loan (heck, sometimes I would have questioned whether or not you needed one).  Capital was flowing and liquidity was ample.  Fast-forward a couple years and things have changed.  Capital is scarce, liquidity is cheap for those with EXCELLENT credit, but very expensive (if not unavailable) for everyone else.  That's what attracted me to Prosper.

I know there are many lenders on here who got burned by lending on Prosper, and I can feel your pain. Ive lost tens of thousands on bad bets before.  My questions is this - Is there anyone on here still lending actively on Prosper?  If so, what is your portfolio size?  Is the general concensus that Prosper is a losing bet?

Thanks for your thoughts  
Do a member search on "ResearchPro".  Read his posts and don't be a dick like he has been.
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Xenon481

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2010, 08:25:37 pm »

I know there are many lenders on here who got burned by lending on Prosper, and I can feel your pain. Ive lost tens of thousands on bad bets before.

I stopped lending on Prosper while I still had a very positive ROI. My problem with Prosper is the way that it is managed and run, not with my portfolio's performance.

Quote
My questions is this - Is there anyone on here still lending actively on Prosper?

People who read here tend to learn that Prosper as a company is extremely messed up and not a company with which one would want to do business.

Quote
If so, what is your portfolio size?  Is the general concensus that Prosper is a losing bet?

The following is a graph of estimated ROIs for all lenders that have an average portfolio age >720 days with a portfolio size of at least 20 loans.

Your_Bank

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Re: Greetings
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2010, 08:36:32 pm »

Study this too:
http://fred93blog.blogspot.com/

Thanks for the extra info.  I saw that today.  I understand this is a very risky business. It always is when you deal with consumer credit risk.  That's why the rate on my portfolio is 28%+.  I'm not blind to those risks.  I am a student of historical data as I used to trade bonds on the floor of the CBOT (before CME bought them).

Having said all that, I believe we are in very unusual times right now.  Back when most of these loans were being originated (2006-2008) anyone with a heartbeat could get a loan (heck, sometimes I would have questioned whether or not you needed one).  Capital was flowing and liquidity was ample.  Fast-forward a couple years and things have changed.  Capital is scarce, liquidity is cheap for those with EXCELLENT credit, but very expensive (if not unavailable) for everyone else.  That's what attracted me to Prosper.

I know there are many lenders on here who got burned by lending on Prosper, and I can feel your pain. Ive lost tens of thousands on bad bets before.  My questions is this - Is there anyone on here still lending actively on Prosper?  If so, what is your portfolio size?  Is the general concensus that Prosper is a losing bet?

Thanks for your thoughts  
Do a member search on "ResearchPro".  Read his posts and don't be a dick like he has been.

I'm getting the feeling I'm not welcome here.  It seems this is not an active lending forum as I had thought.
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